Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, after taking some time off last week I am back with new energy and new content! This week I am looking more into my ROS Rankings focusing on Wide Receivers in this article and adding Running Backs in Thursday's Score Projection & Risk Analysis.
Today there will be no Waiver Wire targets as that part will take a break for two weeks to focus on the ROS Rankings but after that we are back with that before heading into the Playoffs and more numbers catered towards getting the absolute best lineup for those games.
Don't miss our new Podcast/LiveShow on YouTube tomorrow at 9pm ET! As always check out the Score Projection and Risk Analysis article on Thursday right here on csdfantasy.com. Let's dig in!
I decided to take my regular Floor Rankings and Ceiling rankings as the starting point for the rankings but I also wanted to take Schedule into consideration. Some players have numbers that are good enough for me not to worry too much about the schedule while some guys with great schedules move up somewhat with numbers not as good as others.
First off are the two Tampa Bay Receivers, they have a fantastic schedule moving forward and have numbers that ranks them extremely high on this list. I love to have both of them moving forward even if I do prefer to have Chris Godwin above Evans thanks to that safe Floor.
Michael Thomas gets Brees back so even with a lower Ceiling and just an average schedule he is in a great situation to produce points, not that he wasn’t great before this. Same can be said about Cooper Kupp, this is nothing new. To me Kupp was the guy to get on the Rams offense this year and he has even proved me to be even more valuable than I expected.
D.J. Chark has the absolute best schedule for Receivers moving forward so even though his Floor is much lower than Tyrell Williams he will be more valuable moving forward. Williams is great for PPR but the Ceiling is not as high as the other guys on this list which is his main negative, in addition to his below average schedule. Golladay is also in a great spot but has a questionable schedule but compared to Williams he has a lower Floor and a higher Ceiling.
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Jacoby Brissett is not as exciting as a lot of other Quarterbacks but he will keep T.Y. Hilton in the top 15 easily moving forward. He doesn’t have the same heights as with Andrew Luck but with a good schedule and a high Floor I am excited to have him on my team moving forward.
Stefon Diggs just as Adam Thielen have the worst schedule for Receivers moving on from Week 8 so even with a Ceiling that rivals the highest on this list he could not place higher, and especially with the lowest Floor on this list together with Keenan Allen.
For Tyreek Hill I couldn’t care less about the schedule, it is all about getting Mahomes back in the lineup while Terry McLaurin doesn’t need a high end Quarterback right now he has a great schedule and will continue to be productive with whoever plays under center.
I did not want the change at Quarterback in Denver with Emmanuel Sanders gone I was so excited to see an additional step for Courtland Sutton but now I am not so sure. I still ranked him pretty high on this list with Drew Lock, but with a high Floor and great schedule I wanted him higher initially but with Flacco out I couldn’t, I gotta see something from Lock first.
This was very unexpected but I had to place them this low. I have been saying don’t worry about DeAndre Hopkins and I still believe that but who you should be worried about is Keenan Allen. Hopkins still has a decent Floor but an iffy Ceiling. The problem with Allen is that his Floor is so low that you can’t trust him on any given week and his schedule is just getting harder. I even debated having Marvin Jones or Hollywood Brown but the coin toss landed on Allen.
I made 348 Projections with Probabilities for Week 8.
I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 348 Projections and Probabilities I had 261 Correct and 87 Incorrect. That means that 75% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 8.
We are just 1% below the average from last year with a 2019 average of 74%. I am working hard to bump this up as I refuse to go backwards!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD