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Today I am continuing my quest in finding the best Wide Receiver for the 2020 season with the Floor Rankings. Just as the Ceiling Rankings for 2020 I am looking at PPR as this overtook standard scoring questions last year by 20 to 1. With that some players that have previous been ranking higher have taken a step back and some guys are way better than before. This makes this year especially interesting, especially as so many year two Wide Receivers shown great potential in 2019.
One Game Floor: I take the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "Floor". Example: Michael Gallup has a 4.1 one game floor, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
DeVante Parker finished the season on an incredible run but you can't trust him going into 2020. There are just too many questions surrounding him for the upcoming season and the main one is, who will be the starting Quarterback for the Miami Dolphins? Will Tua Tagovailoa actually start? Next question and an even bigger one in my opinion, is he actually good for fantasy or was that just a run he went on? My answer is he got hot at the end of the season and he won't be that good again in 2020. A floor that is this low does not warrant a high draft pick in fantasy. He's currently being drafted in the 7th round and I am almost OK with that, 9th and you have my full attention.
Tyler Lockett is one of those guys that I was talking about in today's intro. He's always been a favorite of mine as he's just so efficient and with Russell Wilson as the Quarterback for the Seahawks a Wide Receiver doesn't need too many targets to be productive. The problem with him is that when it comes to PPR his floor just isn't high enough to be safe week in and week out. He will boom a week here and there and be really great but with D.K. Metcalf coming on strong I am just not willing to go with Lockett in the 3rd round right now. I got him in the 6th in my most recent Mock Draft and that is exactly where I want to draft him!
Established Wide Receiver with questions surrounding him going into the 2020 season. Who am I talking about? All three of course! Tyler Boyd has a rookie Quarterback with incredible amounts of pressure coming into the league with an offense that looked terrible last year.
Brandin Cooks is changing team and has had more head injuries than Reggie Ray from Not Another Teen Movie. Just like Lockett (and T.Y.) , Cooks has been a favorite of mine as he's been heavily undervalued for years in fantasy and you have been able to get great value from drafting him. But, for 2020 I am concerned, not because of the team change, no I am actually happy about that, but the injuries. I much rather go with Terry McLaurin or Juju Smith-Schuster in the 7th round right now than Cooks.
Speaking of Smith-Schuster, he has a higher floor than all three in the previous group while going latest in the drafts. He has just as many questions surrounding him as the Boyd, Hilton and Cooks in my book but you pay a cheaper price to get him on your roster.
My Co-Host on the Fantasy Rabbit Hole Podcast, Nick Faber, will be very happy with the next sentence. Marvin Jones is heavily underappreciated! 8th round ADP for a guy that has a higher floor in PPR than guys going in the 4th, now this is fantasy value. Add to the equation that Matthew Stafford missed most of 2019 and Jones' numbers still stayed this high. I am going to love getting him late in drafts and using him as a great flex option.
I have spent so much of the off-season talking about Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs that I will post links to their individual videos below and focus on Larry Fitzgerald instead. The floor is great and all but I can't go with him this year. He didn't even crack the top 40 in Ceiling so even with a floor this high you can't draft him and expect to do well in fantasy.
I am so freaking impressed with D.K. Metcalf's rookie season. Rookie Wide Receivers usually don't post a floor this high, they are usually more ceiling monsters that have no consistency. D.K. Metcalf only had six games under 10 fantasy points in PPR and I couldn't be more hype to get him on my fantasy team in 2020! For more on him check out D.K. Metcalf Making the Leap.
The fun part about Mike Evans and now having Tom Brady on the Buccaneers is that I actually think he will raise his floor. He's always been a high ceiling type Wide Receiver but he's had some of the most streaky Quarterbacks throwing him the ball and now he moves to one of the most consistent Quarterbacks of all time. This will most likely make his one game ceiling lower while I trust him to get more around 6.5 points per game instead of 5.7 as a floor at the end of 2020. For more on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady check out Scheme Fit: Tom Brady & The Buccaneers.
For more on Kenny Golladay check out Fantasy Breakdown: Kenny Golladay.
This Saturday I will post a new Video featuring David Johnson and my thoughts on him as a future Houston Texan.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
Till next time! // CSD