Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, with the Quarterbacks done, and you can find both my take on their Floors and Ceilings by clicking here and all numbers in a sort able table here, we will now move over to the Wide Receivers. I have done Floors and Ceilings for roughly 100 Receivers but, that is a little overkill to put in these articles so it will be 21-40 today and 20-1 next week. The rest of the numbers will be posted in a sort able table.
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New for this year is a tweaked Floor and Ceiling formula so be sure to read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Floor: I have taken the performances of all the Wide Receivers from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. (NEW) I have also added a weight to have the latest season be worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% risk of not being reached each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land under this number and this is why I call this the "one game Floor" or just "Floor". Let's dig in!
Even with the change in the Floor formula Larry Fitzgerald still scores pretty high. We can always expect him to have a safe Floor even if it has been declining over the last couple of years.
Golladay and Kirkwood are guys on the rise in comparison, they have yet to reach their full potential but score fairly high already. Kirkwood has an asterisk next to his name due to his extremely small sample size. I like what he did with the few targets and games he has seen so I did not want to remove him from the list, to me he can be a late round gamble.
These three are what I would call the legacy group. They have been around for a long time but they never seem to have a higher Floor than this. I wouldn't be surprised if they rank this high again next year but I would never expect them to break into the top 20. You can still have them on your team, well, depending on how deep your league is of course and how high their Ceiling is but with just a Floor look they still bring some value into your lineup.
I was banging the drum for Tyler Lockett all year long last year as he was stealing my fantasy heart over and over. I was very impressed with what he was able to do with Doug Baldwin out of the lineup and his Floor is not even his best quality. I did not expect him to even be this high on this list as he's more of a Ceiling type player so this is a fun surprise. I picture myself drafting Lockett in many leagues in 2019 for a Flex or WR2 position.
However, Sterling Shepard is a guy that I most likely will stay away from. Sure, this is about the Floor and he does have a decent one, but he is in a much worse situation than the rest of the guys that have similar Floors. In my book he has by far the worst Quarterback throwing him the ball right now, I would rather have Joe Flacco throwing to Sanders than Eli Manning throwing to anyone.
I told people over and over again last year, do not go for Courtland Sutton on the waiver wire, he will not carry your team to victory in 2018. He ended up having two games with double digit fantasy points over the entire year so I feel pretty good about that. However, for 2019 my tune has changed completely. I am ready for Sutton to take a big step for next year. His Floor shows that he will at least give us an OK amount of points on his bad weeks, the more interesting question will be, how will he fit with Flacco, but more on that in the Fantasy Snapshot Bundle later on this off-season.
Speaking of the Fantasy Snapshot Bundle, I am starting to record the Videos this weekend so we are still on schedule for a late May release of the first Videos!
These last two groups are a mix of young and old but almost all of them have something in common, you are not drafting them for their Floor. These Wide Receivers have either high Ceilings that makes them valuable or they are in a situation that you like.
As they are Wide Receivers with fairly low ADP you would not look at their Floors too much to decide their seasonal value if you are drafting the way that I preach. Early round guys are the high Floor picks and as we go deeper in the draft we start to look more to the Ceiling and use the Floor more as a tie breaker. So for Keke Coutee and Allen Robinson who are the guys that I am looking at the most in these two groups the one with the higher Ceiling will be my pick and if that is the same Robinson would win out with his slightly higher Floor.
This weekend on the YouTube channel and here on csdfantasy.com I will analyze how Adam Humphries fits with Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans so be sure to check that out!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD