Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am finishing out the Wide Receiver rankings by going over the absolute cream of the crop. This will give you an indication of what Wide Receivers to target early in drafts and what guys that are ranked way below what they should. I will of course point out a couple of players you should stay away from even with a high Floor number.
Saturday's David Johnson video got moved to next week but it will be better and more thought through next Saturday instead of rushed this weekend.
One Game Floor: I take the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game floor" or just "Floor". Example: Sterling Shepard has a 5.9 one game floor, that means that there is only a 16% risk that he will score less than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
I am actually very disappointed in Adam Thielen and not because I think he's a bad player or that that he got hurt but because when he was playing he managed to tank his floor number even with a season like 2018 under his belt. As these rankings take 2018 into account his 2019 was terrible to get ranked this low. Sure he's still in the top 20 but you would expect more from him based on previous experience. As I see the Minnesota Vikings more as a running team now I don't want to overdraft Thielen, he's going in the third right now which to me is almost exactly where he should go, before that you are overpaying.
If you have followed me closely since 2018 you know I said about halfway through the season that Courtland Sutton is about to take off in 2019 and he sure did. Even with sub-par Quarterback play and a run first offense he still manged to improve his floor number by a ton and would have cracked the top 15 if not for the Small Sample guys just ahead of him. Remember the Asterisk* indicates a guy who hasn't played too many games in the league. I will be drafting Sutton almost everywhere in 2020 and the addition of Wide Receiver talent just got me even more certain he's my guy for this year.
I am a huge Cooper Kupp fan and seeing Robert Woods ranked above him is to me quite surprising and changes everything for me. I have ranked Kupp as the best Los Angeles Rams Wide Receiver for fantasy until this moment. He might still be best player but value wise it will be Robert Woods all the way from now on. Robert Woods has almost an entire point higher floor than Kupp but goes 2 rounds later in drafts, that is value I just can't pass up.
I have been very critical of Odell Beckham Jr. on the Fantasy Rabbit Hole Podcast this off-season and I was not prepared to see him ranked this high. A few years back I wrote an article saying he had the highest floor I had ever seen for a Wide Receiver in standard scoring but after that it has been a steady decline. Now, going into 2020 with a floor of 7.8 in PPR and coming off a season you can't redo in terms of terrible I am starting to come around. Jarvis Landry has the exact the same floor and both of them are going in the 5th round and I am more than OK with drafting either one of them right now. Landry still has the edge for me as his ceiling is a bit higher but you might prefer the name brand of OBJ.
Julian Edelman has two Asterisks ** meaning that he has some type of issue off the field and that issue is that Tom Brady is no longer his Quarterback. I do not trust the New England Patriots in general and rarely draft players from that organization. For 2020, there is just no way I am going to draft a Patriot to put on my fantasy team, there are way to risk involved with not enough upside in my opinion.
I much much much rather have Julio Jones of course! We know that the Atlanta Falcons will pass the ball and if they want to be successful the ball should go in the direction of Julio Jones. Don't get me wrong I think Calvin Ridley is great and that he's going to be even better for fantasy in 2020 but Jones is still the main guy and he will put up numbers.
We all knew this already. These are the three most consistent fantasy producers in PPR over the last three years and Michael Thomas from last year especially. If I can't get Christian McCaffery, Saquon Barkely or Ezekiel Elliott I will be drafting one of the top four Wide Receivers as I am not as high on the rest of the Running Backs as many others are. Furthermore, the order they ended up here is the exact order I have them ranked going into the season even if you take the ceiling rankings into account as well.
If DeAndre Hopkins was somebody else he would have gotten an Asterisk for changing team but we have seen him be successful with so many different Quarterbacks and several offenses that I am not worried the slightest for his fantasy production with the Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray. For more on DeAndre Hopkins and the Cardinals check out: Scheme Fit: DeAndre Hopkins & The Cardinals.
This Saturday I will post a new Video featuring David Johnson and my thoughts on him as a future Houston Texan.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
Till next time! // CSD