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Today I will look at the Wide Receivers with the highest Floors. This is not an end all be all guide to drafting Wide Receivers but it will give you an idea of what guys to target if you are looking for a stable contributor for your fantasy team, not if you are looking for a Boom or Bust type of guy.
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New for this year is a tweaked Floor and Ceiling formula so be sure to read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Floor: I have taken the performances of all the Wide Receivers from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. (NEW) I have also added a weight to have the latest season be worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% risk of not being reached each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land under this number and this is why I call this the "one game Floor" or just "Floor". Let's dig in!
I was recently in a mock draft where Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks all went in the same round. It was a 12 team league and they all went in the third. That might have been a little high but we are feeling each other, trying to force hands right now. What I can say though is that Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are in my book very even right now, with Brandin Cooks taking the lead. If I will draft one of them in an earlier round (before the 5th) it will have to be Cooks as he's right now 13th on this list.
Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are another pairing that stack with each other. Thielen started last year like he was the best Receiver in the league while finishing a little weaker. Diggs had a sneaky stable year with some really stand out performances. I will have to give Diggs more credit than I have in the past, he has raised his one game Floor and showed that he can bring value even on his less than stellar weeks.
Tyreek Hill has to have an asterisk next to his name right now as his future is uncertain to say the least right now. After analyzing his Receiving trends for his Fantasy Snapshot Video I was going to rate him extremely high for 2019, now I am not sure if I even will touch him even if he falls.
Alshon Jeffery has been much better with Wentz than Foles so if Wentz can find himself again and be healthy I see tremendous value in drafting the cheap Jeffery. At the moment of writing you can draft Jeffery as the 69th player overall. With his upside and that he still comes with the 14th highest Floor of Wide Receivers, I can't see many wrongs in drafting him.
I have always been a huge fan of drafting T.Y. Hilton but I think for 2019 his ADP will be a little too high. He is currently going 29th overall. Wide Receivers after him are guys that I rank higher on my Floor rankings and seeing as the 29th pick is fairly high I will value the Floor very high when it comes to the final decision. You can get both A.J. Green and Keenan Allen after Hilton right now, both are well above Hilton on this list.
A.J. Green and Jarvis Landry marks the end of the tier for me. There is such a huge gap between them and Juju Smith-Schuster that you can almost not talk about them in the same paragraph. There is no other gap between two Wide Receivers as big as there is between Smith-Schuster and Green so if I get the opportunity to grab one of the top 10 guys I almost have too, otherwise the drop off will be huge.
That doesn't mean that I don't like Landry and Green. I think both of them will have very nice years but their Floors are not as high as the rest of the guys on this list. Landry has never had a Receiver like Odell Beckham Jr. on the opposite side of him and I actually think that will help him. It will take some targets away from him of course, but if he is OK with that he should have some more room to make bigger plays.
Keenan Allen has the lowest Floor of these three but he also comes at a much cheaper price. You can wait until the end of the third or early fourth to pick up Allen right now compared to the late first early second for Thomas and early third for Evans.
With that in mind, these three are perfect to have on your list as, "If I don't get one I'll probably get one of the other". If you went Running Back, Running Back you can wait and get Kennan Allen, or if you want to go heavy Receiver you can pick up two of them. They all three have high Floors but they come with some great Ceilings as well that we'll look at next week, making them better overall picks than Julian Edelman who is extremely high on this list due to it only looking at Floors and not overall.
Fun fact, my wife's grandpa has painted Nuk Hopkins house. Other fun facts about DeAndre Hopkins is that he's a damn good Receiver who will get you fantasy points with any Quarterback you give him. Since I have to stay true to my formula, Hopkins only lands as my fourth highest ranked Receiver on this list but if we had only looked at the last year he would have finished number one with 7.1.
Even with everything that surrounds Odell Beckham Jr. I still want him on my fantasy team. I love the pairing with Baker Mayfield and I expect them to be extremely dangerous together in 2019. You can check out more of my thoughts on that here.
Julio Jones' ADP is currently in the second round in a twelve team league. Please, please, please let him stay there. Dirk Koetter with Julio Jones has been gold in the past and I expect it to be gold in 2019 as well. Sure, I only have him as my sixth highest ranked Receiver on this list but when we get to look at the Falcons Score Projections and the Ceiling rankings you'll see more of my Julio love.
To no one's surprise, Antonio Brown is the Wide Receiver that has had the highest Floor over the last three years. Sure, he went to another team and I am not too high on the pairing with Derek Carr. You can check out more of my thoughts on that here. But, he is to me still the best fantasy Receiver in the game and he will get you points.
Davante Adams might not be the best Receiver but having Aaron Rodgers throwing you the ball will put you high on anyone's fantasy rankings. I'm not saying that he's not good, but there are guys on this list that are below him that definitely are better players in real life. However, for fantasy, Davante Adams is pure gold!
Julian Edelman has the greatest Quarterback of all time throwing him the ball, with less and less competition for targets. He might be old but he will still get you 6 fantasy points on any given week. You don't draft Edelman for his Ceiling, you draft him to always get you a decent amount of points, and he can still very much do that! However, overall he should not be a high draft pick for you. As I stated above, this is only a Floor ranking, not an end all be all guide.
This weekend on the YouTube channel and here on csdfantasy.com I will dig deep into the fantasy relevant players on the Dallas Cowboys. I will look into the patters on their main guys and arrive at a seasonal Score Projection for them.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD