Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, due to popular demand we have a new first at csdfantasy.com! The Wide Receiver rankings are now in Point Per Reception. I usually do my rankings based on standard scoring and add receptions much later. However, during the 2019 season I mainly got PPR questions and people wanting PPR advice that I decided to go with the flow and transition more into PPR. I hope everyone feels good about this and if you desperately want standard scoring numbers hit me up on twitter @csdfantasy.
If you are new to the Ceiling Rankings read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Ceiling: I take the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Christian Kirk has a 20.0 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
D.K Metcalf has a lower ceiling than I would have though and so does Marquise Brown. As this is PPR their big play ability and lower amount of receptions will be heavily impacted. However, even with their limited time in the league, run heavy offenses they still manage to crack the Top 40 which is impressive for rookie Wide Receivers.
Nick Faber and I have talked many a times about the 2nd year leap for Wide Receivers on the Fantasy Rabbit Hole Podcast meaning they would be prime candidates for big performances in 2020.
I am and not just because I am a Cowboys fan super excited about Michael Gallup for 2020! With Amari Cooper back in Dallas Gallup will have less burden to carry on his shoulders and I think this will help him develop into a great fantasy Receiver. I already matches big play guys in PPR ceiling like DeVante Parker and Sammy Watkins. These guys usually rank pretty high on ceiling while lacking floor so that Gallup is at this level with a higher floor is encouraging!
We got the two Philadelphia Eagles Receivers and a guy in D.J. Moore that I have been focusing a lot on this off-season. I believe that with Teddy Bridgewater being the Quarterback for the Carolina Panthers that Moore will get a chance to better showcase his abilities. Bridgewater might not have they fancies of stats, especially when it comes to air yards but what he does have is a pretty darn good short pass and that is what Moore needs. If you can get the ball in his hands on shorter passes and often he will rack up yards and receptions points in PPR.
McLaurin of course should have an asterisk here as he just as A.J Brown has a small sample size. That does not diminish his or Brown's accomplishments. They are scoring in the same range as Odell Beckham Jr. one of the best fantasy Receivers a few years ago. Yes, that is right I don't rate him anywhere close to that right now and in fact I would much rather draft A.J. Brown than Odell Beckham Jr. right now.
They are currently going right next to each other in drafts right now in the fifth round and with all the mouths to feed for the Cleveland Browns and only Jonny Smith to steal targets for Brown for the Tennessee Titans I see much higher upside going with Brown over Beckham. McLaurin goes later in the 7th but I don't trust Haskins at all, if Case Keenum would have been the Quarterback I would have considered him higher.
Golladay is going late 2nd round right now and I am super excited about that! His ceiling is not the highest in PPR as you can see but I will cover Golladay more this off-season which will explain my love for him.
Both Boyd and Chark are terrific value in the late 4th right now, both teams will in my opinion be behind in a lot of games and be forced to throw meaning tons of targets for both these fellas. A.J. Green is back playing for the Cincinnati Bengals and they most likely will draft Joe Burrow here on Thursday meaning Boyd should see some more space and have a better Quarterback throwing him the ball, if I can have one of these two as my 2nd or 3rd option and the Wide Receiver position I am super excited!
I have been a huge fan of all these three for fantasy purposes and as players for years but heading into 2020 one of them has more value than the other two in my opinion. This will go against what I said about Odell Beckham as I think it is Jarvis Landry. He has just as high of a one game ceiling as the other two guys here but goes two rounds later with a Quarterback doesn't have to improve for him to be good in 2020.
The reasoning here is that Metcalf might overtake Lockett as the number one guy bringing Lockett down just a bit, still think he will be good, just not 3rd round good. Hilton has had injuries and a new Quarterback, I think Rivers will improve Hilton, just not willing to bet a 4th round pick on that. Jarvis Landry was Wide Receiver twelve last year with an awful Baker Mayfield and an offense that could not get right. That means that his yearly floor is pretty darn high and with a one game ceiling that is just as high as the other two I much rather get him somewhere in the mid to late 5th round.
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Till next time! // CSD