Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I got one of, for me, the most interesting rankings lists that I do all year for you here today. The Ceiling Rankings for Wide Receivers that are not going to get drafted in the first rounds are extremely relevant to your fantasy team. They are guys that can help you take home a game maybe not by themselves but if you can stack them with another stud on a good week things are looking pretty darn good.
I love to pick up guys with high Ceilings after round five and beyond. I stack the team with players I know will always contribute in the first rounds and then go players that can be terrible on their bad days but amazing on their good ones, I like to think of DeSean Jackson or Marvin Jones. They might give you 1.2 points for three weeks, but then they have that big game that carries your entire team for that week.
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New for this year is a tweaked Floor and Ceiling formula so be sure to read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Ceiling: I have taken the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. (NEW) I have also added a weight to have the latest season be worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Alshon Jeffery has a 14.0 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Three of the first guys that I would like to talk about today are in this first group, Keke Coutee, Tyler Boyd and Tyrell Williams. All three have to me huge upsides, Boyd showed that even by himself he can be a very productive Receiver, add an healthy A.J. Green and Boyd should be given more space by defenders to do his thing.
Same goes for Tyrell Williams, sure he has had Keenan Allen taking defenders away from him in Los Angeles but as good as he is, he's no Antonio Brown in my opinion.
Lastly we have Coutee, he only played six games last year but had 14 and 15 targets in two of them and only below five two times. With that offense you have to account for Dehaun Watson taking off and DeAndre Hopkins doing his thing, this leaves a player like Coutee pretty free to find space.
These three have high Ceilings with very favorable situations, I of course would have liked to see higher Ceilings but you can't have it all and this leaves them as 59th, 123rd and 115th overall with Boyd being the most expensive and Williams the cheapest.
Everyone knows what I feel about Tyler Lockett, I love him and with Doug Baldwin out the picture I am even more excited about him. He really showed me last year that he is ready to be a bigger contributor for fantasy football. He's always had a decent Ceiling and still do but as I discussed in a previous article, he now has a higher Floor as well.
Stills and Watkins lack competition if we assume that Tyreek Hill is gone. You don't have to pay anything for Kenny Stills right now, he's going in the 17th round at the moment and with a Ceiling of 13.3 he can be flexed in if we are starting to see Rosen and him having a decent rapport. I am not saying go for Stills as a go to guy, but I will draft him late and stash him in the case I need a guy that has a high share of the targets.
Watkins is more expensive in the 8th round so you will have to spend something to get him, which to me is way too high. Sure, if Hill is gone his value goes up a ton but I much rather have Dante Pettis 11 picks later. More on Dante Pettis next week (spoiler, he is ranked very high on the One Game Ceiling list).
Mike Williams gains some value with Tyrell Williams gone but of course lose some with Hunter Henry back from injury so it will be for me a zero sum game for him. He'll stay as the 13.7 Ceiling guy he is. He'll help you win two games in 2019, be decent in three and for the rest of the season he'll be unstartable.
Jarvis Landry, known for his Floor has a Ceiling that is just one point behind Mike Williams. That to me signals that Williams isn't even as good of a Boom or Bust guy and with him now demanding a 7th round pick is absurd to me. Sure, Landry is more expensive in drafts right now but you'll be able to start him twice as many games and still have the same upside week to week. Don't be cheap, be smart.
Getting Kenny Golladay in round five or waiting and getting in round seven, what do y'all think I prefer? Jeffery was 14th on my Floor rankings and Golladay 21st and now Jeffery again has the higher number. The answer is obvious to me even if people believe that Golladay has higher upside as he'll transition into the number one role in Detroit I much rather have the cheaper Jeffery with a healthy Carson Wentz. The Ceiling slowly but surely gains more appeal to me as the rounds go on so drafting a guy with the 29th highest Ceiling in round five when I can get Allen Robinson who has a 0.4 higher Ceiling in round eight is a no brainer. Now if Golladay's Floor would have been outstanding we would have had a competition on our hands.
Allen Robinson and Robby Anderson are guys that live are both going in the eight round right now and are perfect examples of guys that I want to draft for their Ceiling. They don't have high Floors but can really help me win a game here and there. I want their one game upside on my bench when a BYE week comes around or if they have an extremely favorable matchup. I really like to draft both of these guys as they are fairly cheap can give me in edge here and there throughout the year.
What I said about Allen Robinson and Robby Anderson can be said about these last three as well. They are cheap but have upsides that can give you an edge in a couple of games. I want these types of players on my team to get a good mix of players on my roster. If I have Jones, Fuller and Sanders on my bench and only need to start one at flex each week I can play their matchups and gain their best weeks. I don't have to rely on them being productive every week and instead rely on my own projections (in the Weekly Score Projection article that comes out every Thursday I project over 200 players fantasy score for the upcoming week).
This gives me a safe Floor with the first four-five players I draft and plenty of room to mix with the upside players. I strongly encourage you to draft this way and I will talk a lot more about it as we move closer to the season.
This weekend on the YouTube channel and here on csdfantasy.com I will dig deep into the fantasy relevant players on the Minnesota Vikings. I will look into the patters on their main guys and arrive at a seasonal Score Projection for them.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD