Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I know the draft has come and gone and most content is aimed towards that. Well, here you get a break from the draft and can focus on fantasy football instead. Today I am looking at the Wide Receivers that has the highest one game ceiling in the league for PPR.
If you are new to the Ceiling Rankings read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Ceiling: I take the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Allen Robinson has a 22.7 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Juju Smith-Schuster has been a forgotten man so far in 2020. On the Fantasy Rabbit Hole Podcast a few weeks ago we discussed him in depth and we still can't figure out why his ADP is currently placing him in the 7th round. He only played 12 games in 2019 for the Pittsburgh Steelers and it was only two games with Ben Roethlisberger. Assuming that Big Ben is back and somewhat close to his old self there is no doubt in my mind that he will finish in the top 30 for Wide Receivers.
I will throw some love towards Marvin Jones in this group. He is constantly underappreciated in the fantasy and in football as a whole to be honest. I am super impressed with him being this high and surrounded by guys that are highly thought of in fantasy, I even have Calvin Ridley as a Making the Leap player for 2020 and Jones has a higher ceiling than him. Add to it that he played most of 2019 without Matthew Stafford. Just like with Big Ben, if Stafford comes back and is close to his former self the Detroit Lions are a totally different teams and Marvin Jones will have great value in drafts in the 8th round.
We knew this already, Stefon Diggs and Will Fuller are both high ceiling guys that either are great or don't do much at all. With Diggs going to Buffalo I can actually seeing him raising this ceiling a bit more while at the same time lowering his already low floor.
Will Fuller on the other hand is more of health concern than anything. I can't trust the guy to finish a game and that to me is a huge thing. The take that DeAndre Hopkins is gone and Fuller will stay healthy and get more looks is bonkers to me, I can't see myself spending a 7th round pick on him right now. However, if he falls to the 10th he has fantastic upside and the risk that I am taking now is much smaller.
Cooper Kupp will rank very high on the floor rankings in a few weeks so seeing him this high on the ceiling rankings just solidifies him as a guy that I will be eyeing in 2020. I have always been a huge fan of Kupp even before he was drafted by the Rams and without Brandin Cooks I think he will see even more targets than before. Robert Woods is a nice Wide Receiver two but 2020 Kupp will secure the Wide Receiver one spot for sure.
I will be honest with y'all, I did think at least two of these guys would break the top three. I for sure had Hill and Adams as two of the Wide Receivers with the highest ceiling going into this article. This just goes to show how the eye-test can fail you. Don't get me wrong they still have extremely high one game ceilings and they will rank high on the final Wide Receiver rankings of course.
The only guy I am a somewhat concerned about in this group is DeAndre Hopkins. Concerned might be the wrong choice of words as I still believe he will do very well with Kyler Murray, more on that in the Hopkins and Cardinals Scheme Fit Video. But, compared to the other two there are less unknowns going into the season for him.
Michael Thomas is of course the guy with the highest one game ceiling in ppr. There is just no one challenging him for the top dog spot after that 2019 season. With Jameis Winston now joining the New Orleans Saints he has to again be the nr.1 overall Wide Receiver pick for everyone going into 2020. I say this because my only concern would be Brees not holding up but now they have a guy that had two top 16 Wide Receivers last year which removes and concern I had.
Julio Jones is still up here but I have major doubts about Mike Evans. I am pretty sure his floor will increase with Tom Brady as his Quarterback but now that Gronk is there too he won't have these huge games anymore where he just dominates. There are too many mouths to feed and Brady will use all his weapons and not lock in on a guy the way Winston had a tendency to do. For more on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers check out my Scheme Fit Video on the pairing.
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Till next time! // CSD