Hello Fantasy Faithfuls,
Today I will look at the Wide Receivers with the highest Ceiling. This is not an end all be all guide to drafting Wide Receivers but it will give you an idea of what guys to target if you are looking for a guy that can carry your team or be a Boom or Bust type of guy.
The Fantasy Snapshot Bundle will drop this weekend. The first 13 players will be uploaded here on csdfantasy.com/fantasysnapshot and one will be uploaded on the YouTube channel. There will be uploads every week starting Sunday, with some Videos dropping during weekdays and a bunch on the weekends, you don't wanna miss out on this, it will give you a huge advantage over your friends and family for the 2019 season!
New for this year is a tweaked Floor and Ceiling formula so be sure to read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Ceiling: I have taken the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. (NEW) I have also added a weight to have the latest season be worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Keenan Allen has a 16.7 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Dante will peak next year, he will light up the league like an inferno, it will be the most godlike funny time you have ever seen. Ok, enough with references to his first name and actually talking about the player. I started advocating for Pettis last year and with Garoppolo back as Quarterback I see even more upside with him. He's currently going 87th overall right now which to me is right where I want him, I don't wanna go higher so hopefully he can stay there. He's perfect as a flex guy to come in and have a 16.0 game here and there throughout the year.
As with the One Game Floor Article we have Kupp and Woods in the top 20 but not higher than the first group of the day. Brandin Cooks again wins out as my favorite Rams Receiver to draft for 2019. You will have to spend a higher draft pick for Cooks, but it is only a matter of spots for to me a better fantasy option, pay for quality.
Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are neck and neck again, just as with the Floor rankings, but for more on them check out the Minnesota Vikings Score Projection Video.
Ridley is going 57th overall right now. That is a bit steep for me for a player that did not show any type of stability last year. There are still plenty of mouths to feed in Atlanta and so I still view him as a Boom or Bust type of guy and with that 57th is a bit much. I love the massive Ceiling but you have to get him down at least 10 spots for me to look at him.
T.Y. Hilton was not even close to Smith-Schuster and Green in the Floor rankings but here he's right behind them. You will get a very high Ceiling when it comes to Hilton but you gotta sacrifice some of the stability that the other two come with, add that he actually has a higher ADP than Green right now and you might want to rethink the pick.
I got my eye on both Green and S-S for 2019 as their teams have been kind of forgotten due to the rise of the Browns. I believe that as we get closer to the draft their ADP might even drop even more if we start seeing more and more Browns hype. Green is especially interesting as he's going almost two rounds after S-S right now, if that goes down even further he might be the steal of the year.
Even with the diminishing abilities of Eli Manning and all the injuries Odell Beckham Jr. is still 8th on this list. To me that is a signal of just how talented he is and how productive he can be for fantasy. If you can put up these kind of numbers with a guy that is being played off from the stage is very impressive and I can only dream of how high his highs will be with Baker Mayfield. More on that in this video!
Davante Adams and Michael Thomas are here thanks to themselves and their Quarterbacks. There is not much to say about them, their Ceiling is as safe as it gets. They have high Floors and Ceilings that puts them inside the top 10. They might not score as high as Antonio Brown or Julio Jones but I will feel very good with having both of them on my roster.
To be honest, I am a little bit surprised these three ended up as four, five and six. I was expecting at least DeAndre Hopkins to be in the top three when it came to Ceiling but I was mistaken. I still think, speaking strictly from a football perspective and not fantasy that he's in the top 2 of Wide Receivers at the moment.
However, all these three have been limited by the Quarterbacks they have been playing with over the last three years. They have not had Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Ryan or Mahomes throwing them the ball. Sure Winston will chuck it down field and Derek Carr had that nice year but can't really compare them to the other guys in terms of quality in my book. With that in mind they Ceilings are even more impressive and they will almost win a couple of games on their own next year for you.
Antonio Brown again wins out as my highest ranked Wide Receiver. He has had the highest one game Ceiling and one game Floor over the last three years and if he had stayed in Pittsburgh he would have been a lock for my overall highest ranked Wide Receiver. Now that becomes a bit more complicated. I will still want to have him on my team but I will be a bit more reserved in my evaluation. I don't like the fit with Derek Carr and that offense so I am worried that these numbers will go down significantly compared to his last three years. You can check out more of my thoughts on that here.
Julio Jones had the fifth highest Floor, he has the third highest Ceiling a stud Quarterback he's been with for a long time, he's healthy and he's not involved in a scandal. With that I would rank right now with DeAndre Hopkins as he had the 4th highest Floor as my two favorite Receivers to draft for 2019. They have overall the best situations in combination with the best Floor/Ceiling combo. They will be followed by Antonio Brown, Davante Adams and Odell Beckham. But more on my full draft rankings as we get closer to the season and when the Fantasy Snapshot Bundle drops this weekend.
*Same as with the Floor. Tyreek Hill has to have an asterisk next to his name right now as his future is uncertain to say the least right now. After analyzing his Receiving trends for his Fantasy Snapshot Video I was going to rate him extremely high for 2019, now I am not sure if I even will touch him even if he falls.
This weekend on the YouTube channel and here on csdfantasy.com I will dig deep into the fantasy relevant players on the Los Angeles Rams. I will look into the patters on their main guys and arrive at a seasonal Score Projection for them.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD