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Waiver Wire & Week 6 Statistics Analysis

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, first off I would like to thank everyone that joined in the Live Stream on Sunday! It was a great show and I had a ton of fun helping y'all with start/sit questions. We had a new record in likes on the stream so and if we can reach 20 likes on the next stream I will look for a giveaway for Week 8!

Today I am back with my Waiver Wire targets heading into Week 7. I am focusing heavy on the Bills and with Sam Darnold back there will a couple of Jets as well. However, there is somewhat of a lack of talent on the Waiver Wire right now according to my numbers so I did bump up the Ownership percentage up to 60% for this week.

Don't miss our new Podcast/LiveShow on YouTube tomorrow at 9pm ET! As always check out the Score Projection and Risk Analysis article on Thursday right here on Let's dig in!

I usually divide this article up in two groups and I have done that today but it is a little bit different compared to other weeks. This first group is a mix of long term options and also have fantastic matchups in Week 7 so let’s focus on this. Devin Singletary has been a guy I tried hard to get on my team a few weeks ago as I saw this game against the Dolphins in Week 7 as his breakout game. He has been rested from injury and is facing the 2nd best opponent for Running Backs right now. He’s owned in less than half of leagues right now so there is still a chance you can pick him up. His projection is a bit low for what I believe but I see no risk in playing him if he is healthy in this game.

Tyrell Williams has been hurt but looks to come back after a BYE Week and faces the Green Bay Packers in Week 7. They are a great opponent for Wide Receivers to face right now and Tyrell Williams has been Derek Carr’s go to guy in the Receiving corps. He will especially be valuable in PPR leagues but has a higher ownership than most guys in today’s article so you might have trouble picking him up but if you do you get a great combination of low risk, high Floor, high Ceiling and a great matchup.

Frank Gore is the second Bills Running Back I want on my team for Week 7. He as Singletary is facing the Dolphins and you want to get your hands in on this game. This is not the Washington Redskins playing the Dolphins, this is the Buffalo Bills and they will show that they are a playoff contender by crushing Miami. I see no reason in not starting half the Bills skill players in this game as I also want John Brown on my team for this game.

With a bunch of Receivers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OBJ, Landry, Juju and so on on BYE Week you might need a guy to toss in the fire and that guy is Smokey Brown. If you have followed me for some time you know how much I like this guy, he outperforms what people expect and what you pay for him as long as he gets targets and right now his low for the year is 5 targets, with that he can have a great game against Miami. Use Brown as a BYE Week option, maybe not a starter moving forward.

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This group is a little different from the first one. They don’t have great matchups in Week 7 or great schedules moving forward, well Golden Tate has ben the rest are average if anything. No these guys are more opportunity based and based in the fact that Hunter Henry plays a position that is thin as every right now.

So Golden Tate and opportunity, for him we can see that he instantly has become a high volume guy for the New York Giants with 6 and 9 targets. This reminds us more of how he operated for the Detroit Lions, you won’t be super happy playing him week in and week out in standard but in PPR he will always have a high Floor thanks to all the receptions even if the yards won’t be there. I am not sure how long Sterling Shepard will be out with a concussion but with Engram back against the Cardinals Tate is most likely the second option on a team desperate to show something.

Hunter Henry does have a decent schedule and opponent in Week 7 but something seems off with the Chargers right now so I don’t want to jump on the hype train too fast. But, with the Tight End position being so thin right now we are looking for value anywhere we can get it, that is why you kinda have to pick up Henry if you are a Dissly owner, have been waiting on Herndon or Hockenson. Henry has shown that he can be fantasy relevant in the past and right now, for a Tight End, that matters.

Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder are back to being relevant with Sam Darnold back in action. I still had Crowder stashed in a PPR league and I am very happy about that, I would not start him in a standard league but in PPR I see him as a valuable flex option. Robby Anderson on the other hand has more one game upside while he lacks consistency. He has that higher Ceiling with an incredible low Floor. This signals more of a stream option or DFS when he has a good matchup which he doesn’t have in Week 7 facing off against the New England Patriots. For both Crowder and Anderson look to start them in Weeks 9-14 when they play teams like the Dolphins twice, Redskins and New York Giants, great opportunities for you to get an edge!

If the Buffalo Bills DST is available in your league of course put in a waiver claim for them or spend some of that FAAB to get them. This is one of the best DSTs to have out there and they are playing a dream opponent. It is not that likely that they are out there but you never know in some leagues where people just forget about the DST position!

Statistical Summary

I made 309 Projections with Probabilities for Week 6.

I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.

Out of the 309 Projections and Probabilities I had 201 Correct and 108 Incorrect. That means that 65% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 6.

This was the worst week by far for the projections and I could almost not believe my eyes when I saw it. Week's like this happens and the yearly average is still 74% so I expect a big bounce back in Week 7!

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

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