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Waiver Wire & Week 5 Statistics Analysis

Updated: Oct 9, 2019

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, this has to be the craziest week we have had so far! Mike Evans scored 0 points, Will Fuller scored 39.7 and Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones both put up 40 burgers. If someone would have told me these things would happened I would have called them insane and you will loose all your money in DFS.


However, even with all the craziness it was the best week for my Score Projections as I reached a 87% hit rate this week, but more on that down below. Today, I am looking into some more Waiver Targets that are hovering around or below the 50% ownership mark. I feel like the talent pool is a bit more shallow on the Waiver Wire this week so beware of making too many moves.

Don't miss our new Podcast/LiveShow on YouTube tomorrow at 9pm ET! As always check out the Score Projection and Risk Analysis article on Thursday right here on csdfantasy.com. I got two fantastic Fantasy Snapshot Videos coming out on Friday and Saturday with deep dives into Cooper Kupp and D.K. Metcalf, you don't want to miss that. Let's dig in!

Gardner Minshew again has to be my top priority on the Waiver Wire for Week 6. He is below 16% ownership right now so you should have no problem picking him up when you drop Baker Mayfield or if you need a BYE week Quarterback (hint, I like Minshew over all QBs on BYE in Week 6). Furthermore, he has a fantastic schedule moving forward after Week 6 so you can continue to start him even after game against the Saints.


Matthew Stafford is my backup to Minshew. I am somewhat excited about him as well but he is less likely to be out there and he has a much tougher schedule and opponent in Week 6. In one league where I rolled with Cousins against the Giants in Week 5 I will look to Minshew and if I can't get him Stafford to hold me over going forward.


Michael Gallup is back from injury and show straight away that he is a force to be reckon with. 17.3 points against the Packers in a game the Cowboys looked somewhat lost in. He is still criminally under owned in fantasy with a Floor of 8.7 and Ceiling that rivals some of the best in the game right now. Sure, he hasn't the best schedule moving forward but it is not like it is terrible either.


Chris Thompson has a fantastic matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 6. This is my main reason for picking him up. Gore, Mack, Jacobs, Cohen and Montgomery are all on BYE this week and he's a great option to throw in as a replacement for one week only. I am not excited about him moving forward and I want to make that clear, this is a BYE week option.

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The remaining four Waiver Wire targets are not guys I am super excited about by any means. Hardman makes the list thanks to Sammy Watkins going down with a hamstring injury so he gains some value. But, with Patrick Mahomes dealing with an ankle the upside might be limited. Add that he has one of the worst schedules for a Wide Receiver and you can see why I am not head over heals.


Tony Pollard is a Running Back option in deeper leagues. As we saw in the Eagles game, if the Jets give up a lead early on the opposing team will try to run the ball as much as possible. Of course Ezekiel Elliott will get the majority of the carries and touches, but Pollard has already outscored Zeke in one blowout this year, might be a second time.


Metcalf is my favorite target of these four but he also has an ownership above 50% so you might struggle to pick him up. Russell Wilson is playing in my opinion, like an MVP and with the schedule looking fantastic I can see Metcalf putting up points on several occasions.


A.J. Brown has a couple of monster games and three duds. I put him on here as somewhat of a warning. There are only five teams that have seen less production from the Wide Receiver spot than the Tennessee Titans. Those teams are: 49ers, Panthers, Raiders, Dolphins and Jets. They have played one game less, injured starting QB and no real Wide Receiver threat, Tyrell Williams and who?, the Organic Fish Tank and Mono. If these are the only teams you can outscore what does that say about your Receiving Corp and what does that say about your QUARTERBACK!? Be careful, be very very careful.


Statistical Summary

I made 246 Projections with Probabilities for Week 5.

I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.

Out of the 246 Projections and Probabilities I had 215 Correct and 31 Incorrect. That means that 87% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 5.

Last year I had a 75% hit rate on my Projections and over the first 5 weeks I am averaging 76%, so we are now above last year! With the addition of a Running Back fix in place I am even more certain this number will continue to rise.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD