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Waiver Wire & Week 4 Statistics Analysis

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, welcome back to another Waiver Wire article, today I am doing a bit of a celebration as I was so right on our featured player last week in Courtland Sutton. I started hyping Sutton up even before the season started and we are seeing the fruits of the research now with him scoring 18 points this weekend and already posting two 12+ point games!

I aim to give you as good of advice this week and I hope you are ready as we more into even more BYE Weeks, this is where the strongest fantasy teams will prevail. You will have to work the Waiver Wire, trade with your enemies and show the depth that you built in the draft even before we started playing.

Don't miss our new Podcast/LiveShow on YouTube tomorrow at 9pm ET! As always check out the Score Projection and Risk Analysis article on Thursday right here on I got two fantastic Fantasy Snapshot Videos coming out on Friday and Saturday with deep dives into D.J. Chark and Demarcus Robinson, you don't want to mis that. Let's dig in!

Gardner freaking Minshew is the 14th highest scoring Quarterback right now, ahead of players like Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins. Add that he has the 3rd easiest schedule moving forward with an ownership of 11.2% and you should definitely look to pick him up as your BYE Week Quarterback moving forward.

Jacoby Brissett is my second option at the Quarterback position. He is not as exciting as Minshew as he as a bit lower Floor and not as easy of a schedule. However, he does come with much lower risk and you can start him even in Week 5 at Kansas City while Minshew is more of a Week 6 and beyond type of guy. Just like Minshew, Brissett is almost not owned at all so you should have no issues with picking him up as your BYE Week QB.

I gave Darrel Williams no respect going into Week 4 and I do apologize. Sometimes the algorithm takes a week to adjust which is something I am working on for Running Backs. I have previously fixed this issue for Wide Receivers but Running Backs are still suffering. Anyway, pick him up if you are struggling with Running Back depth or you are looking for upside. I am not still not 100% sold as he only had 1.3 yards per carry but Touchdowns are always to be had as a Running Back on that offense so there is upside there.

What can I say about Courtland Sutton, he is still owned in less than 42% of all leagues which is criminal. I want him pretty much in all my teams and I will be putting in my waiver claims for him, even though I won't get him with the last claim in all leagues that don't use FAAB. Continue below for 4 more players!

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Some quick notes regarding these players. Nyheim Hines is not someone that I think you should rush to pick up. No instead, monitor what is happening to Marlon Mack and if you are in need of a cheap Running Back for DFS purposes and Mack is out, consider going with Hines.

I talked about Dorsett both in last week's article and in a video on the YouTube channel and I do really like him moving forward. I mainly wanted to get by the Bills game and then start starting him. He has a fantastic matchup against the Washington Redskins in Week 5 and the 5th easiest schedule moving forward, a great player to have on your roster as a Flex option or just to see if he can take the next step.

19 rush attempts against the Rams and 14 rush attempts the week before, Ronald Jones is seeing more and more carries for the Buccaneers and I am very intrigued. In leagues where I have relied on Austin Ekeler and gone heavy on Wide Receiver I will be picking up Ronald Jones to potentially take over as a lead back on a Bruce Arians offense.

Sanu is again just a DFS guy for me, unless you are in super deep leagues there won't be many games where he should be started. I am kinda surprised that he's owned in 28.5% of leagues right now, I think that is a bit too much and I will not be picking him up anywhere to be honest.

Statistical Summary

I made 253 Projections with Probabilities for Week 4.

I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.

Out of the 253 Projections and Probabilities I had 179 Correct and 74 Incorrect. That means that 71% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 4.

Last week I had a 69% hit rate on my Projections and over the first 4 weeks I am averaging 73%, not to shabby but this will improve, I promise you!

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD