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Waiver Wire & Week 3 Statistics Analysis

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, thank you so much for the turnout on the Live Stream on Sunday, it was a fantastic show and I am so grateful for everyone joining me and asking start/sit questions! I would also like to thank everyone that listened to the Fantasy Rabbit Hole, our new Podcast/LiveShow on YouTube. I unfortunately lost to Karlton Daniel, one of the co-hosts in fantasy this week but we are back at it for Week 4!

With the new Podcast/LiveShow on YouTube tomorrow at 9pm ET we again have a crazy amount of content on all CSD Fantasy Platforms. We will be talking Daily Fantasy and much more! On Friday and Saturday I am creating Fantasy Snapshot Videos so if you want to learn more about a player hit me up @csdfantasy and tell me who you want to see. Lastly on Thursday I am of course posting all the Projections as always! Let's dig in!

The people have spoken 60% ownership was too high so I am down to under 50% this week, hope that will help people in deeper leagues a bit more!

Tyrell Williams still has to be on this list even if he has taken a step back in his scoring production each week. He does have a difficult schedule moving forward and a tough opponent in the Colts on the road in Week 4 but I still would pick him up if I have lost someone like AB.

Frank Gore has the most difficult matchup for any Running Back in Week 4 but he has the 7th easiest schedule overall right now. That includes playing the Patriots one more time so that should let you know how favorable his schedule is moving forward. As long as Singeltary is out Gore is looking great.

Sutton has struggled a bit even if he did managed to work up his scoring from Week 2. I still have faith that this is his breakout year and I am stashing him while contemplating playing him in DFS as a cheap option in against the Jaguars in Week 4. He is the one with the highest ownership while not having the highest upside so he wouldn't be my first choice.

My first choices for a good stash is Phillip Dorsett and MVS. They have the easiest and third easiest schedule moving forward and with AB gone and Gordon and Edelman a bit banged up Dorsett will see more targets. The Packers will eventually get going offensively and when that happens MVS stock will skyrocket, get him now when he's only owned in 30% of leagues.

Here are some of my lesser targets. Even with Gallup hurt, I am picking him up to stash him. The Cowboys has a favorable schedule for Wide Receivers and when he comes back he still slots in as their second target on a offense that looks more catered to the pass than it has done in a lot of years.

Tyler Eifert both has an easy opponent in Week 4 playing the Pittsburgh Steelers but also has a good outlook if we look further down the road. He doesn't have as high of a Ceiling as he used to but he can still put up 9.8 from time to time.

Josh Allen is still the Quarterback that I want to have on my bench if when I am waiting on breakout. He has the highest Ceiling of any of the Quarterbacks that are on the Waiver Wire and why not pick him up instead of starting Philip Rivers???

Ronald Jones clearly doesn't have stats that I am looking for, a Floor below 1 and a Ceiling below 8 but what he does have is touches in Week 3 and an easy opponent for Running Backs in Week 4. The Rams have given up the 9th most points to Running Backs but it has to be said that these have been CMC, Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb so don't go thinking he's putting up RB2 numbers. If he can increase his touches week to week he will be valuable moving forward, especially when we hit BYE weeks.

Statistical Summary

I made 256 Projections with Probabilities for Week 3.

I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.

Out of the 256 Projections and Probabilities I had 177 Correct and 79 Incorrect. That means that 69% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 3.

Last year I had a 75% hit rate on my Projections and over the first 3 weeks I am averaging 74%, this will improve, I promise you!

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD