Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are back again after another crazy week of football! I had an amazing week riding Russell Wilson to glory in DFS with John Ross and Michael Gallup who I hyped up last week both here and on the YouTube channel. However, one of my most accurate projection came on Thursday already when I missed Cam Newton by 0.2 points.
This week will have a crazy amount of content with the new Podcast/LiveShow on YouTube tomorrow at 9pm ET. We will be talking the Quarterback position and go through our breakout players for Week 3. On Friday I am digging into Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin and on Thursday I am of course posting all the Projections as always! Let's dig in!
This week I am back with the regular Waiver Wire formula. I got my highest ranked players for Week 3 with ownership under 65%.
I mentioned him together with Tyrell Williams as players with a strong Week 1 that I really wanted to keep on my team, John Ross. As long as A.J. Green is out of that lineup and maybe even when he's back I like John Ross a ton! He does have a more difficult matchup this week but he's still projected for a ton of targets which adds safety to the play.
Josh Allen is showing some consistency and has raised his Floor by a ton even when we account for last years games as well. Sure his Ceiling has yet to go through the roof but for a Quarterback I love a high Floor. He's still not owned in that many leagues and if I am a Big Ben owner Josh Allen is a great pickup.
Same can be said for Stafford, he is someone I would look to as a Brees, Roethlisberger, Cousins or Rivers owner. Guys that are hurt of guys that struggling with putting up fantasy numbers right now. Stafford has a favorable matchup vs. the Eagles in Week 3. They have given up a ton of points to Quarterbacks and I don't think they'll hold Stafford to less than what they did Case Keenum.
Tyrell Williams got hurt but I still really want him on my team. In PPR he is looking like a steal for me in 3 leagues. I hyped him up even before AB left Oakland and now it is looking better than ever. He is the most owned guy on this list so not the easiest guy to pick up from waivers, but if he's there I would try to get him on my team!
Smokey is back in our lives and I love it! Before Lamar Jackson took over in Baltimore last year I was extremely high on him. I was not expecting him to have 18 targets after two weeks but he does and I don't see why they would suddenly move away from him. 10.3 yards per catch in Week 2 and 17 .6 in Week 1. Not the best of matchups but not a bad one either in Week 3, at home vs. the Bengals.
I was debating butting Carlos Hyde on the list but I mainly did it because I was so excited to see him play for Kansas City and now he had freaking 20 carries for the Texans in Week 2. That is a big deal, not that he produced that much from it, but if he can continue to get 20 carries a game he will be valuable. Especially if we start seeing some Running Backs go down.
Honorable mentions are Randall Cobb, Jason Witten and Devin Smith for Week 3 as the Cowboys play the Miami Dolphins who can't cover anyone. With Michael Gallup out for 2-4 Weeks there are some targets to be had this week.
I of course gotta mention the rookies Darren Waller and Terry McLaurin in this article, if they are available in your leagues they are looking good right now. I have yet to done any projections for Rookies (that will be before Week 5), but I did want to mention them here.
I made 308 Projections with Probabilities for Week 2.
I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 308 Projections and Probabilities I had 243 Correct and 65 Incorrect. That means that 78.9% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 2.
Last year I had a 75% hit rate on my Projections and in Week 1 it was at 74% so we are already seeing an increase and are above last year's average!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD