Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, first week of NFL football is in the books and CSD Fantasy is back with the guys you should and should not be targeting on the waiver wire and of course we also go through our projections to see how we did.
It was an amazing Week 1 and I am already pumped up for Week 2! However, there were some real outliers going on from a statistical standpoint, we had Mike Evans go for just a couple of points, while Hollywood Brown trashed the Dolphins. This is what makes Projections just so hard but also so much fun, you do what you can with the knowledge you have but at the end of the day, players gotta play. Let's dig in!
Instead of the classic Waiver Wire article where I only look at players under a certain ownership I decided to talk about some players that had strong showings in Week 1 that I have gotten a ton of questions about in the last two days.
As you see from my Projections for Week 2 I believe that you should be somewhat cautions with selling out for any of these players. If they are on your team great, if they are not, I want you to be careful about getting too hype about players that have amazing Week 1.
As we will see in Week 2 the best players that had issues in Week 1 will be back on track and the players that had amazing games will revert back to the mean. This is of course not the case for every player on the list and I did not put John Ross on the list as I will dig into him in this week's Fantasy Snapshot on YouTube. But, you will have to take into account much more than just a strong Week 1 when you decide on a Waiver target.
Someone like Will Fuller has a tough game coming up vs. the Rams, the team that gave up the least amount of points to Wide Receivers, but they also played Carolina that don't really have that many big time play-makers in the air.
Randall Cobb is one out of six weapons on the Cowboys offense and it is not that likely that he will catch a touchdown every other week so even though I was excited about him as a potential draft pick, I wouldn't drop someone like Dante Pettis to make room for him.
The players on this list that I would like to make room for is Tyrell Williams and DeSean Jackson. I will have to swallow my pride and admit that I was wrong about DeSean, he clearly still has his speed and with a better QB he will be valuable this season, and against Atlanta he will have plenty of opportunity to catch a long touchdown. Williams has a great situation in Oakland with AB gone, that will lead to plenty of targets all season long and that in itself is a floor that you can lean on.
Be sure to check out the New Show on YouTube that will air at 9pm ET tomorrow. The CSD and Faber Experience will go down the Fantasy Rabbit hole with plenty of interesting topics in a live format that of course can be caught afterwards on demand as well!
I made 281 Projections with Probabilities for Week 1.
I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 281 Projections and Probabilities I had 208 Correct and 73 Incorrect. That means that 74.0% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 1.
Last year I had a 75% hit rate on my Projections. that means that we are right behind the average of last year. A good start but I can always do better. I am constantly tweaking the algorithm to better suit big weeks but also to find pitfalls and be accurate in projection low scoring players.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD