Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am again focusing on Tight Ends for the 2020 NFL Season. The Floor Rankings will as always provide info on the players with the highest one game floor, these Tight Ends should be considered in the higher rounds or later on if you are considering to stream the position.
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One Game Floor: I take the performances of all the Tight Ends from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game floor" or just "Floor". Example: Eric Ebron has a 4.2 one game floor, that means that there is only a 16% risk that he will score less than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
As I mentioned above, if you are considering streaming Tight Ends Dallas Goedert should be on your short list. He is going very late in drafts right now and the Philadelphia Eagles doesn't have that many weapons in the passing game in my opinion. Goedert will 100% see games big games but with a floor of 4.0 points you can also be sure that if you put him in your lineup he won't kill your hopes of winning completely.
People are hyping up Mark Andrews as a top 3 Tight End but I don't see it with the numbers he has posted so far. Sure, he is a fantastic player that can carry your team a week here and there which is great but he's just not on the level of Kelce, Kittle and Ertz when it comes to safety. If you go back and look at Andrews 2019 season there is a mix of great games and games where he's just not a factor. If you are spending a high draft pick, meaning a second or third round pick on Tight End Andrews is not your pick, in the 5th, yes, this is where you should rush to pick him up.
I have never been a huge fan of Jared Cook and now again with the New Orleans Saints they are saying that he's about to show people his true self. We have heard this so many times with Cook now that I just can't get onboard. However, what he's got going for him is his ADP. Currently, Cook is going late in the 10th round in 12 team PPR leagues which turns the whole conversion if he's good or not on his head. In the 10th round he's in my opinion a good value considering his 5.2 floor and on a team that targeted him 9 times in the Red Zone in 14 games.
I will have to again mention Evan Engram as he's just so cheap. It is the same case as Jared Cook, the value is just too good to pass on if you arrive in the in the 7th or 8th round and Engram is there. The New York Giants is starved for Red Zone receiving and Engram had 13% of the team's red zone targets last year, while only playing 8 games. If we bump him up to 14 games he's still in the mix of the most targeted Tight Ends in the Red Zone and it is a whole new ball game. I am very excited to draft Engram thanks to his floor, ceiling and ADP and I think you should be as well.
But the guys that you should be most excited to draft is still these three and especially Ertz in the 5th. Well, if you can pick up Kelce late in third then he's your guy of course but other than that, the value of Ertz is just amazing right now. As I said with Goedert before, there is a lack of aerial weapons in Philadelphia and the Tight Ends will have to shoulder a lot of that in my opinion. Furthermore, the floor of Ertz is not respected enough in fantasy circles right now and that makes it the perfect time to pounce on a great deal.
This weekend on the YouTube channel the Head-2-Head series is back and I will be looking at Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers vs. Drew Brees from the New Orleans Saints.
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Till next time! // CSD