Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am looking at Tight Ends going into the 2020 NFL season. The position is even more top heavy than it has been in a long time and I decided to slim it down to a top 15 instead of doing 20 or more as I will recommend going Tight End early for this year or simply stream the position.
If you are new to the Ceiling Rankings read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Ceiling: I take the performances of all the Tight Ends from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: James Conner has a 24.3 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Tyler Higbee was huge at the end of the 2019 season, and I mean huge! Especially in PPR where he scored over 22 points 5 weeks in a row. I don't anticipate that he'll have the same success throughout the entire season in the upcoming year but with the Los Angeles Rams losing Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley I will have my eye on Higbee. Currently he's going in the 8th round in 12 team PPR leagues. I am very OK with spending an 8th round pick on him if I don't get a Top Tight End, and I will be happy with him as a week in and week out starter in the early stages of the season.
I am not super interested in drafting anyone of Eric Ebron, Jared Cook or Hunter Henry. We always believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers Tight End will take off and do great things but how many times have we been burned there? The answer is, way too many times and I am not falling for it, especially when that Tight End is Eric freaking Ebron.
Hunter Henry has Tyrod Taylor throwing him the ball, which isn't necessarily a terrible thing but we haven't seen Taylor in a while. I think Henry was living a bit on Rivers ability to throw Touchdowns to Tight Ends and that is not something Taylor is known for even if he did have Charles Clay playing decently back in the Buffalo Bills days.
I have said it before and I'll say it again, don't go after Austin Hooper even with his ADP falling to the double digit rounds. There are too many mouths to feed in Cleveland and the Falcons have been great at getting the Tight End open, not something the Browns has done well.
No, instead focus on Mark Andrews that lost competition in Baltimore. Sure he's all the way down at 8th here on the ceiling rankings but with Hayden Hurts going to the Atlanta Falcons I see an opening for him to increase this even a bit more. The only problem I have with Andrews is his ADP, I don't like it going as high as the 4th round, that is a bit on the higher side of things for me in PPR.
I much rather gamble on Evan Engram being back playing great in New York. 22.9 one game ceiling and going in the 7th round is huge! I know Will Dissly isn't even being drafted right now but that is why he has an asterisk, his sample size just isn't big enough for us to draw a fair conclusion. Daniel Jones has a year under his belt now and Engram has shown in the past just how explosive he can be and he has very little competition for Red Zone targets, a great way for a Tight End to rack up points.
George Kittle could have been included with these three as they will be my top four Tight Ends going into 2020 which shouldn't surprise you. For PPR these four are just on another level.
Darren Waller has little to no competition for targets in Las Vegas, Derek Carr loves to focus on a Tight End and just keep feeding him targets and he's the cheapest one of the four.
Zach Ertz is still guaranteed over 130 targets in 2020 which makes him a stud Tight End. Not many Tight Ends can go into 2020 and say they have it better than Ertz on his roster, if we look at it from a target perspective that is.
Travis Kelce. Do I have to say more, he's of course going to be my number one Tight End for the year, we all know this. He is the best Tight End in the league (Gronk is back I know but no, don't start that) and he has the best Quarterback in the league. Get him in the end of the 2nd round and be very happy.
My next Video will come out this weekend and will put Carson Wentz against Dak Prescott in a Head-2-Head.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
Till next time! // CSD