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Today I am looking at the Tight Ends with the highest single game upside. These are they guys that you want to stream, play in DFS or gamble with. They can legit score like any other position on a good week and be a great contributor to your fantasy team on those weeks. They tend to be the same as the Floor guys in the top while the rest are some new names.
One Game Ceiling: New for this year is a tweaked Floor and Ceiling formula so if you are unfamiliar with the new formula please head over to the Quarterback Rankings and check out the first couple of paragraphs where I explain it all. In case you are fully aware, stay here. Let's dig in!
As I was saying above, there will be some new names and one of them is Blake Jarwin. I am not too worried about Jason Witten being back with the Cowboys, Jarwin will still have one or two really strong weeks with around 11 points. He is nowhere near to be in the top 15 on the Floor Rankings but for one week here and there he'll get you a ton of points.
The same can be said about Jordan Reed and Jimmy Graham, they have lost their scoring stability but can still produce a week or two with some decent points. I would never trust them to be my go to guy week in and week out but in DFS with a good match-up they might be worth starting.
As we move up the rankings we see some more familiar names. I was a bit disappointed to see Henry this low on the list as his Floor is very high making him a top priority for me to draft for seasonal leagues. I am still alright with him have an 11.3 point Ceiling I was just a bit greedy.
Rudolph is looking like a guy you can pick up really late in drafts right now and be very happy with. He was 12th on the Floor Rankings and now 12th on the Ceiling rankings with an overall ADP of 141st. So in a 12 team league he is looking like a steal. There is some safety to his scoring and some upside as well and you don't have to spend a high draft pick on him. Drafting Rudolph as your go to Tight End means that you have a ton of capital to spend on Running Backs, Receivers and a Quarterback.
I will draft Tyler Eifert just for the upside. I talked about it last week and I am even more sure of it after this list. There is so much upside with him for the price you are paying, which is no price at all. In most leagues, he's not even being drafted right now. So you are drafting him with your last pick, for the potential to have a top 8 Tight End on your roster. Why not do that and spend the higher picks on positions that have more upside.
For instance, drafting Eifert with your last pick instead of going with Jared Cook. You have potentially the same production for 130 picks later. Sure, you will have to draft another Tight End to make sure you are not shooting yourself in the foot, but that can be with another late pick as well. But my point is this, instead of spending the 75th pick on Cook you can get Alshon Jeffery, Allen Robinson, Robby Anderson or Russell Wilson. To me those picks have way more upside compared to Jared Cook over Austin Hooper at 121 overall, if you pair Hooper and Eifert together.
Dissly will be another guy that I can see myself streaming on a team and starting in DFS for sure. When the Seahawks have a good Tight End match-up he looks like a prime candidate to start. I would't trust him as a seasonal Tight End by himself, week in and week out but I would love to start him 3-4 weeks to get those 13.7 points.
I talked a ton about Ebron and Howard last week so I will only say, I am not surprised that they are up this far. There is a group of Tight Ends that are in the top both in Floor and Ceiling, and that is usually the norm.
Speaking of the usual, as Gronk is gone Travis Kelce again takes the win for Tight Ends. He is in a tier of his own and if you are going to go Tight End early there is only one option.
These three have aligned themselves as the go to guy in the early rounds. Kelce goes in the second, Ertz in the third and Kittle in the fourth. That is how it should be and I don't see anything wrong with this. I could make an argument that Evan Engram should be up there but he is the only one of the top Tight Ends from the Floor rankings that took a massive step down in the Ceiling one. So overall, there is no way I can make an argument that he should be top three but fourth or fifth, yes.
The Tight End position seems to me easier to prepare for than ever. I know exactly in what round a guy will go in and there will of course be someone reaching for Howard and Ebron but I'm not going to be one of them, and I suggest that you're not one of them either.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD