Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today we have more content in than ever! I have never crammed this much information into an article so I will keep this intro short and get right into it.
Today it will be both the regular Score Projection stuff, Must Starts, High Risk High Reward. But, I will also reveal my ROS Rankings for Running backs. Let's dig in!
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Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
Great matchups all across the board for my must start players. I almost felt like I was cheating when I put Dalvin Cook in here as I usually try to mix it up. But as one of the top backs with the second best matchup in Week 9 I had to showcase him.
Josh Jacobs and Kenny Golladay are both playing the 3rd best opponent for their respective position with high Projections and below average Risk. This makes them fantastic starts for this week.
Prescott doesn't have the best of matchups but it is still above league average and with the third highest Projection for Quarterbacks with a Risk below 50% he was to me a no brainer to start in Week 9 against the New York Giants.
Stafford is putting together a really great season and I have talked about him a lot in the Waiver Wire articles but not as much in the Score Projection sections. He has the highest Projection of any player for me in Week 9 even if he comes with a ton of Risk.
Tevin Coleman plays tonight which I am not a fan of but the matchup is too good to ignore and he is playing really really well right now. He doesn't have the highest of Boom chances but that is because his Ceiling is 26.1 points which is amazingly high.
Jamaal Williams is another back that has upside but comes with a fair bit of Risk as he's not the main guy in the Green Bay offense. He has a great matchup against the Chargers so if I am in need of a BYE Week Running Back he's a good option.
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I couldn't even make a case for anything else than CMC and Dalvin Cook for the top 2 even with McCaffrey having a terrible schedule moving forward, he is by far the best Running Back to have on your team and has been the best one.
Aaron Jones is more surprising to see here if we go back before the season started. He has really impressed in several areas even catching touchdowns on some fantastic throws and add that he has a great schedule moving forward and you should be very happy starting him.
I have my concerns about Austin Ekeler and James Conner but they still have some of the best schedules and if the Chargers can figure out that Ekeler should have the ball more again he'll be fine.
Josh Jacobs is a guy I am doing my best to trade for right now before he goes off even more. He has shown that he's taken the next step over the last couple of weeks and have the 5th best schedule for Running Backs moving forward, and that is after Week 9 when he plays Detroit, 3rd best opponent right now.
Mark Ingram who I was extremely high on before the season has lived up and even surpassed a little bit was I was expecting. Having him as the 12th guy after what he's already done is fantastic for a guy you picked up in the mid rounds, still great value in the second half of the season!
Chris Carson is extremely undervalued in the fantasy and NFL community in my opinion. He does not get enough credit for what he has done this year. Being a top 15 Running Back going into the second half of the season is pretty darn good in my opinion, especially if you look at the guys behind him who gets way more attention.
Phillip Lindsay is one of my favorite players in the NFL but I am worried. The schedule looks great for him but with Brandon Allen I am afraid the box is getting stacked. If that doesn't happen and Allen need someone to lean on with short secure throws Lindsay will be fantastic in PPR. I am looking to sit him in Week 9 and see what happens after that.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD