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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 8

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I will be very brief today as I have struggled to manage my time correctly this week. But fear not, the numbers are all in order, just my writing has taken a hit this week. Let's dig in!


If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.

Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.

Allen Robinson is one of my favorite starts this week against the Chargers. I am not that fond of Mitch Trubisky but Robinson in this game I am confident in, especially in PPR where I have him for seven receptions.


Chris Godwin is back from his BYE week and I have him for seven as well! He has a tough opponent but nothing can keep me from starting him every game he plays in right now.High Floor, High Ceiling and low risk of reaching 15.4 makes him a must start!


Josh Jacobs is slowly but surely making a name for himself in the NFL. I am mighty impressed with what he has done so far and with the easiest schedule for Running Backs moving forward I think we have yet to see the best of him. I am starting him in DFS this week against the Texans and expect a touchdown.


Austin Ekeler showed that he is the oil that greases the wheels for the Chargers last week. Gordon might take some carries from him but Phillip Rivers will still target him a ton to get him involved and the ball in his hands. As Chicago just give out points to Running Backs right now I might even start both Gordon and Ekeler but if I can only pick one, Ekeler it is!


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Kirk Cousins revenge game, this is such a hit or miss in my opinion. The Redskins numbers against Quarterbacks are a bit skewed as they played the rain bowl last week and Miami the week before. That means that they probably are not the 13th worst opponent for Quarterback, much more likely somewhere in the top 16. But then you have the prime time factor of Cousins tonight something that does not excite me too much.


Sony Michel has the best opponent for a Running Back to play right now, start him and hope that he’s the Patriot that gets the goal line carries against the Browns, but be prepared for Brandon Bolden vulturing you once or twice.


With Sanu in the lineup I still would like to gamble on Phillip Dorsett this week. Dink and dunk suits him well and for PPR I think he has a great chance for a boom week.


I almost feel bad not putting Terry McLaurin on the must start list but with the Quarterback situation and the quality in general on the Redskins concerns me. He has a good matchup playing the Vikings. But I am not sure that is enough right now. I don’t mind starting him if I am running low on Wide Receiver talent but I hate to start a Wide Receiver with questionable QB play on a Thursday!

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD