Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I am not happy that the Broncos are playing tonight in Thursday night football! I have been a huge proponent of starting Courtland Sutton and I drafted Phillip Lindsay in several teams as he was so cheap. This has put me in a pickle tonight as I would have liked to start Sutton if Davante Adams is out this weekend. I know a lot of people have asked me regarding similar situations over the last few weeks so I figured I would take the opportunity to talk a little bit about TNF before we get into today's topic.
I as a fantasy player prefer to have options and not be locked in to a player that have question marks. Using Davante Adams as an example, I would love to start him if he's healthy and otherwise start Sutton if not. With TNF I get robbed of this choice and have to make a decision on Thursday already. My thought process is this on a case like this, who is my second choice to play after Sutton if Adams is out and am I OK with starting him in the case Adams can't play? In my situation my Receivers would be Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp and Michael Gallup if Adams can't play. I am OK with playing Gallup over Sutton even if I am not happy about it, it is a risk I am willing to take for the upside that a healthy Adams brings.
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Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
Kyler is this week bumped up from High Risk High Reward to Must Start in Week 7. I was extremely satisfied with his performance last week and the risk of playing him paid of! This week his risk has gone down and his projection is still high. The Giants are not a great defense by any means and Murray will again put up points.
I wanted to showcase just how much I trust the Arizona Cardinals two main stars this week so I put David Johnson on the must start list as well. Again the Giants are just as for Quarterbacks the 13th best opponent for Running Backs right now. Johnson is looking better and better for fantasy and comes with a high projection, average risk and a high boom chance. Play both Murray and Johnson and you’ll be very happy you did so.
Devin Singletary has been on my mind a lot of the last few weeks with this week in mind. I said weeks and weeks ago that he will be rested until the BYE week and come back against this terrible Miami Dolphins defense and have his breakout game. You have no excuse for not playing Singletary this week, I will start him in every league I own him in.
Austin Hooper is now Tight End number 1 without much noise going on. He has another great matchup coming up against the Los Angeles Rams. Sure they just got Jaylen Ramsey but it is not like he will follow Hooper. No, Hooper will have another field day and will produce points, use him in DFS before he gets on everyone’s mind.
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Josh Allen is back after his BYE week and as I said above, plays the terrible Miami Dolphins. The reason he’s not a must start is that they might leave the pass game if the get off to a great start. The reward has the chance to be incredible this week but you will have to take into account that he might not pass as much as you would like.
Josh Jacobs hasn’t got a high Boom chance and that is mainly why he’s here. Compare to David Johnson and they have very similar projections and risk, it is that Boom chance that is the issue with him. There is not much saying that he will have a Boom game, I think he’ll have a good game but maybe not a fantastic game.
Kenny Golladay has by himself a good projection not an incredible risk but he plays a division game against a tough opponent in the Minnesota Vikings. As with Josh Jacobs he doesn’t have a massive Boom chance so he as well looks to decent game but the chance of him booming is smaller than you would have hoped. But, if he does Boom the score will be above 18.2 and he’ll be a fantastic start.
I am working on a video for tomorrow for Matt Breida so you will have to wait a little bit more before you get my full take on him.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD