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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 6

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I have a fun announcement to start with today! From now on you can follow CSD Fantasy on Instagram for daily fantasy content. I will be posting player thoughts, Score Projection Charts, Receiving Trends and much more moving forward. I hope that this will add value to all y'all that prefer quick takes on certain Waiver Wire targets and for fast start sit advice on certain players. Head over to and check it out!

Today, as every Thursday I have the Projections done and ready for you. Week 5 was a fantastic week for my Projection and I hope to continue that trend! A fix has been implemented for Running Backs that see their team mates go on IR. This will help the algorithm figure out if it has to bump up certain backs in the same manner as it does with Receivers. I hope this will add value and accuracy to the projection but it will need a week or two for tweaking before it is perfect.

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If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.

Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.

After throwing an interception on every pass attempt in Week 5 (I am exaggerating but still) Dak Prescott makes my must start list in Week 6. It might not be the easiest of opponents playing against the Jets but I believe that the Cowboys bounce back against a bad team even with the game being played in New York. Prescott has a Floor of 14.3 points so even when he's bad he still will give you a good amount for fantasy.

I will continue to ride the wave with Mark Ingram. He was probably my favorite Running Back to draft in 2019 and I own him in three leagues and I will be starting him in all of them and in DFS at home against the Bengals. When you account for seasonal trends and there three game averages the Bengals are the 2nd best team for a Running Back to play right now. The Boom chance for Ingram might not be the highest but that is because his Ceiling is 25.6 which is extremely high for a guy you got in the 5th-6th round, play him and be glad you did!

I will go more in depth into Cooper Kupp tomorrow on the YouTube channel, but for now just know that he is a must start. He has shown that he's actually the WR1 on the Rams and can hurt any defense at this point.

Austin Hooper has the best Tight End matchup in the league this week against the Cardinals. We discussed the Tight End position for half of the show last night (check it out below) and what we agreed on was that the Tight End position right now is thin as ever. This means that if you own any Tight End that has a good matchup he becomes a must start for you by default.

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Kyler Murray might not win games in the NFL but he has not been terrible in fantasy by any means. Sure, he comes with plenty of Risk of not reaching 21.5 but that is a Risk at least I am willing to take. The Atlanta Falcons are not a good football team right now, especially on defense. Pretty much the entire city has given up on them and we might see a shootout in this one as the Falcons try to make their last stand.

Kerryon Johnson travels to Green Bay to play one of the worst run defenses in the league. I don't expect the Lions to give up 14 points to the Packers in the first quarter like the Cowboys and give up on the run game completely. This makes this a favorable matchup for him and I have put him in as a starter in both leagues I own him in, this has the potential to be his coming out game of 2019 with a 16.5% Boom chance.

I keep talking about Michael Gallup but he is making a difference every time he is on the field for the Cowboys. As I stated above, the Jets defense isn't terrible but I don't think that matters for Gallup right now. He looked like he never had the surgery three week ago against the Packers so I want him in my lineup for sure, especially with guys like Davante Adams questionable, T.Y. Hilton on BYE and Alshon Jeffery struggling with his production.

Again, as I said above, the Tight End position is thin right now. If you are struggling with finding a starting Tight End like me and you have resorted to streaming which I do encourage you to do right now, Noah Fant is a guy that is out there in a lot of leagues. He has a great matchup so if he can catch a touchdown your good, otherwise 2-3 points but I'll take the hope over anything right now, at least the matchup looks favorable.

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD