Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, thank You to everyone that joined in yesterday on the Live recording of the Fantasy Rabbit Hole! We had a great time recording, taking questions and going down the rabbit hole that is fantasy football. I hope you enjoyed it as much as we did and hope you will join us again! For everyone that has yet to check it out, do so by going to this link -> Fantasy Rabbit Hole Week 5
Today I am back as always with four new must start players and four high risk high reward ones. Last week was a great outing with the New England DST going crazy with turnovers, Austin Ekeler being RB4 and Kerryon was decent. Today I hope to give you even better opportunities to win your Week 5 matchups!
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Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
Lamar Jackson is my highest projected Quarterback if you take the risk into account and the fact that he has a 77.7% Boom chance this week. That means I feel safe in starting him while he also comes with a ton of upside. It is almost unprecedented to have that high of a Boom chance with a projection that high so I am extremely excited for the league I own him in.
No Nick Chubb is not a reactionary pick from his big game last week but more of a pick to show just as with Dalvin Cook last week, that even with a tough matchup they are matchup proof. Chubb is playing the San Francisco 49ers, the team I have as the most difficult opponent for a Running Back to face. Even with that, he still has a projection of 15.6 points with a risk below 40%, matchup proof.
I have talked so much about Phillip Dorsett and Courtland Sutton over the last week or so that I almost don't know what to say. Dorsett has one of the best Quarterbacks in the league throwing him the ball with lack of competition for targets right now and he's playing the freaking Washington Redskins, he is a must start. Sutton is showing what I was talking about in the pre-season and that is that he was going to take the next step in 2019. Flacco might not be the best of Quarterbacks but he is not the worst when it comes to fantasy production for his Receivers, looking at you Marcus Mariota.
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I talked about Jacoby Brissett on Tuesday in the Waiver Wire article, Nick talked about him on the Fantasy Rabbit Hole yesterday and now I will mention him again. He is a great start in DFS this week with tons of upside even though he comes with plenty of risk as well. I will be starting him in DFS as a cheap Quarterback option to stack my team with studs. Even if he fails, my lineup will be full of great players thanks to him being cheap that I will be OK or he’ll pay off and Boom which sets me up nicely for a strong DFS week. Add that this matchup is against the Kansas City Chiefs who always puts up points which usually leads opposing Quarterbacks to throw a ton and I have almost talked myself into putting him as a must start. Just a bit pissed he plays on Sunday night so he can't be in 1pm leagues.
Frank Gore has looked great but Devin Singletary is back in practice and with that comes upside. He is still extremely risky to play this week so if you have to start him because Saquon is out for you and Kerryon Johnson is on a BYE just know that you are signing up for almost no points or a great weekend! I am not comfortable gambling on him just yet, but I am excited to have him on my roster moving forward as I do believe he’ll be the lead back on that offense after their BYE.
I usually don’t pick superstars to go on these list, I try to look at guys that you might have questions about and why tell you to start Patrick Mahomes or that Saquon Barkley is a must start? Well, today I had to add Julio Jones to the High Risk High Rewards segment of this article. He has performed as usual and is right now WR5 so you will start him but there are so many questions regarding the Falcons right now that I want you to be aware of the risk in starting anyone on that offense right now. They can put up numbers as likely as stink it up and what is being said in Atlanta is not positive, Dan Quinn is hanging loose.
Olsen is another star that comes with a good amount of risk this week with Kyle Allen throwing him the football. He was open several times against the Houston Texans but at the end of the day only had 4 targets, 2 receptions and only 5 yards. He has a decent Projection this week with a 45% risk of not reaching it even with an opponent in Jacksonville Jaguars giving up 12th most points to Tight Ends so I am not completely sold on him right now. Olsen should be a couple of points higher or with lower risk for me to be say that he’s a must start right now. He is TE6 over the season but has seen a drop in targets in Weeks 3 and 4 with Kyle Allen, if that is a trend I am worried even with him scoring 2 TDs in Week 3. Most likely you are starting him but I would not look to play him in DFS this week.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD