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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 4

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, so sorry about yesterday and the missing episode of The Fantasy Rabbit Hole! We will be back on Saturday at 11am with a new show and back to normal next week at 9pm ET on Wednesday.

After last week with T.Y. Hilton and Russell Wilson going off as a must starts while Sanders and Ross was terrible I hope to be above 50% for you this week and I have picked out just the guys for it!

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If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.

Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.

Dalvin Cook is facing one of the toughest run defenses in the league right now in the Chicago Bears but I want to warn you in benching players solely based on that stat. I don't want to bench a player in the form of his life almost carrying a team just cause his opponent is tough. No instead, I am hunkering down and putting him as a must start.

I talked up Mark Ingram all off-season and managed to draft him in 2 leagues this year and started him in DFS last week. I don't foresee a replication of last week but I do see him as a must start against Cleveland at home. There is some risk involved and not an extreme boom chance, but I don't see many Running Backs I would bench him for.

Austin Ekeler is a guy I would consider benching him for this week. He is playing the Miami Dolphins and you want as many players on the opposing team as possible to take advantage of the lack of talent on that roster. This might be Ekeler's last hurrah if Melvin Gordon comes back and starts stealing carries and targets so ride him while he's hot.

Phillip Lindsay is back from the dog house for this week. I am ready to trust him again even if Jacksonville has been better than average at defending the run I am starting Lindsay. Going into the season I had him highly ranked and he still has a high Floor and Ceiling even if he has hasn't lived up to my hype more than 1 out of 3 weeks.

Plenty of Risk involved in starting Case Keenum this week but he does have an extreme projection compared to other low cost Quarterbacks thanks to him playing the New York Giants on the road which is a perfect storm for him. He traditionally score more points on the road, vs. teams that have a losing record and a below average pass defense.

Marlon Mack has barely been talked about since Andrew Luck retired and I made the mistake of not talking about Hilton as much as I should have and won't make the same mistake with Mack. He still comes with a fair amount of risk this week and almost no boom chance, but that is also thanks to his ceiling being 19.3 points this week. (Boom chance is the chance of scoring above the Ceiling).

I don't think I have ever put a DST on one of these lists before but seeing as the New England Patriots DST has been crushing it and are playing a turnover prone QB I had to include them on this list. I couldn't justify them on the must start list but I think you should try to pick them up in DFS if you can.

Kerryon Johnson has been a bit disappointing so far but this is great chance for him to show some consistency. He's playing the Kansas City Chiefs here in Week 4 and they have giving up a ton of points to Running Backs, mainly due to Ingram's crazy performance but Josh Jacobs put up 9.9 in Week 2 as well which is in the ballpark of where I have Johnson right now.

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD