Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I am back with the Score Projection and Risk Analysis for Week 3 as usual. After a very strong outing in Week 2 I really want to make sure that the projections stay on top of things and that the numbers keep improving. That is why I have done extensive research into how injuries to a Wide Receiver impacts his fellow Receiver teammates.
So, Week 3 will be the first week that an injured Wide Receiver will cause a change in the projection to the other Wide Receivers on his team. This is of course also based on which Wide Receiver that is hurt. As an example, Michael Gallup will be missing this week's game against the Miami Dolphins. As the nr:1 target for Dak Prescott over Week 1 and 2 he will have a bigger impact on Amari Cooper's numbers than if for instance Devin Smith was out.
Don't forget to check out The Fantasy Rabbit Hole Live Show/Podcast for Week 3, we discuss the impact of Drew Brees' and Big Ben's injuries and much more! Click Here!
And lastly, check out our new sponsor in PrizePicks! With our friends at PrizePicks, you can turn Yours and my fantasy sports knowledge into cold hard cash. No sharks. No endless hours of research. It's just you against the projections. Just choose Over or Under correctly on a player’s Fantasy Point Projections to win, and why not use the this article to help you beat the over/under this week!? Let's dig in!
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
Russell Wilson carried me to DFS glory in Week 2 and I trust him completely for Week 3 as well. He is playing the New Orleans Saints at home and I expect him to be close to that 22.3 mark I have him projected for. Sure, he still comes with fair amount of Risk but I am not worried.
John Ross moves onto the list of must starts this week. He doesn't have the greatest of matchups playing against the Buffalo Bills but with how he's playing right now and how much the Bengals are using him he has to start until proven otherwise. 57.5% Risk for a Wide Receiver is nothing, and especially when the projection is this high!
I must apologize to T.Y. Hilton, I was not expecting him to start the season this good without Andrew Luck. I have always liked him as a fantasy option but he seems to have taken a step further being not just boom or bust with Jacoby Brissett but also having some stability, something I like a lot. I am starting him against the Atlanta Falcons, a team I believe should not be this negatively ranked for Wide Receivers. Their ranking of 23rd is heavily impacted by Week 1 and 10 pass attempts by Cousins and DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery not playing against them.
The last guy I really want to start this week is Emmanuel Sanders. I was expecting Courtland Sutton to take the next step this year, and he is showing signs of that. But, Sanders is the guy you wanna start, especially in PPR, on that offense. If the Bears can't contain him, neither can the Packers, how good they might have looked in Weeks 1 and 2.
Philadelphia came after Matt Ryan a ton on Sunday Night Football but he still put up numbers and so did his Receivers. I don't think Stafford and the Lions offense has the same talent as the Atlanta Falcons but I do think he has a chance to surprise this week. I sneaky DFS pick for a cheap Quarterback.
Derrick Henry is still not ready to be on a must start list for me. I was very impressed with him that he followed up Week 1 with a good performance last week. However, I do need him to do it for one more week before I am ready to call him a must start. Since he plays tonight already we will know real soon if he is good ol' Henry with a 3.9 score tonight or if he has stepped up his game.
Jeff Wilson got two touchdowns and only 34 yards in Week 2 but if he is the goal line back on that offense he will have opportunities for touchdowns every week, and especially against Pittsburgh. I don't expect that defense to be fantastic just cause they got Fitzpatrick even if they will see improvements later on. I am not starting Wilson anywhere but if I am struggling with my starting Running Backs he could be an option.
I will be talking more about Chris Godwin on the YouTube channel tomorrow so be sure to check that out! It will be a Head-2-Head with Kenny Golladay and I am super excited about it!
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD