Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, what a Week 1! I don't remember if I feel this way about every Week 1 but that was amazing, so much drama, so much fantasy drama right up until the last kick of Monday Night Football. That was incredible and I hope y'all's fantasy teams did great in Week 1!
For me it was the usual start, 3/4 wins with one league losing out with Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Adam Thielen scoring fewer points than my opponents kicker, combined. But, that is the beauty of fantasy football, anything can happen and we gotta be prepared and put ourselves in the best situation to win every week. That is why I am back with another Score Projection & Risk Analysis Article for you. As always, there is a link down below that takes you to all the Projections and this article will focus on my 4 Must Starts and 4 High Risk High Rewards players. Let's dig in!
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
My must start did not pan out exactly as I had hoped last week, but with some tweaking of the algorithm and with a first look at most players in a real game I feel very comfortable starting these four in Week 2.
Deshaun Watson is my highest projected player going into Week 2, even with him playing the former feared Jacksonville defense I expect him to put up big numbers again. Sure he has 73% risk of not reaching the Projection but that is a risk I feel very comfortable with and there is no way I am not starting him.
Kerryon Johnson had a quiet game against last years worst run defense but against the Chargers he is a must start. There is only a 35% risk he won't reach that 8.4 points and 7.8% he'll outscore his Ceiling of 14.7 so I am more than ready to toss him into my lineups and watch him have a bounce back game.
Michael Gallup will be featured on the YouTube channel this week so I will just tease him here, I think he has probably the best situation of almost any Receiver going into Week 2 and 3 so try to pick him up where you can.
The Falcons had a terrible outing against the Minnesota Vikings but they are back home for a Sunday Night Game against the Philadelphia Eagles and they will get back on track. Austin Hooper will catch a ton of passes in this game so this might be more of a Must Start for PPR while a fringe start in standard. Still, he has a 5.2% chance of booming above 8.9 which is one of the higher numbers this week for Tight Ends.
Marcus Mariota is far from my highest Ceiling Quarterback for Week 2 but the rest of them are guys I know you know about so there is no use in me telling you that Russell Wilson has a great matchup against the Steelers. Instead I went with Mariota, he will most likely not be started in that many leagues and he can be a sneaky DFS pick home against the Colts, who did not look as strong on defense as they did last year.
Smokey Brown, I could not help myself, I have always been a huge fan of his and he is facing the team that gave up the most amount of points to Wide Receivers in Week 1 and saw 10 targets against the Jets. There is a ton of risk involved in starting him but with that comes plenty of upside.
I don't like it but I had to put Derrick Henry on this list, the algorithm has him for a huge game against the Colts who to be fair looked like a completely different run defense against the Chargers. I am a Austin Ekeler fan but let's be honest he's not the best back in the league and he tore them up! Derrick Henry has a great opportunity to score a ton of points this week, but there is plenty of risk involved with him as always.
Evan Engram put up huge numbers against the Cowboys but the Bills defense looked amazing against the Jets and the Cowboys kinda let Engram, after the touchdown at least, just catch the ball as long as he didn't take it to the house so it is difficult to know how much was the Giants and Engram and how much was the Cowboys letting up.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD