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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 16

Updated: Jan 1

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we made it to Week 16 and I can't help but feel a bit strange. It has been a fantastic fantasy season but it feels weird that the seasonal leagues are coming to an end so soon. There will of course be ton of DFS content coming out here on csdfantasy.com but no more Start Sit, Waiver Wire. From next week I will create lineups for DFS instead of the Must Start and High Risk High Rewards player.


Today I will finish out strong with the regular Score Projection and Risk Analysis. However, I would like to promote the Fantasy Rabbit Hole Podcast that will air tonight at 9pm ET on the YouTube Channel. Check it out by following this link! Let's dig in!


If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.


Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.

Jameis Winston has earned a spot in the Must Start group for Week 16. He's been featured in the High Risk High Reward group but now he's a must all across the board. I had him highly ranked for Week 15 as well but this is a golden opportunity for you to take home your league with Winston leading the way against the Houston Texans, the nr:1 opponent for Quarterbacks.


Chris Carson has no competition for carries right now on a run heavy team with a good matchup. This is fantastic for all Carson owners, and will help you a ton in Week 16. The Arizona Cardinals give up 20.4 points on average to Running Backs and seeing as Carson will get the majority of carries he's primed for a big game.


Mark Ingram is another guy that is primed for a big game. Not that he's alone with getting carries but the matchup is just great for the best running team in the NFL. Cleveland has slowly but surely become a great team for Running Backs to play and now rank as the 3rd best matchup on paper.


Finally it is Austin Ekeler. I know I know I put him on this list every week, but he's still not getting the praise he deserves in my book. He again has a good matchup in the fantasy playoffs going against the Oakland Raiders, (will have to learn to write Las Vegas Raiders soon) a team that gives up 20.9 points on average to Running Backs. Last stat I want you to take with you for Ekeler, he's been 23% above his average against teams with a record below 500, that is a lot of extra points.


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The Quarterback position is outside the top four very even in fantasy in 2019. With that said I am somewhat disappointed in Matt Ryan even with one game less than most other top Quarterbacks. I was expecting him to be a cheap option for a Top 10 Quarterback and he's now ranking 12th. That is alright but nothing you win leagues win in most cases. He's a High Risk High Reward Quarteback for Week 16 due to the inconsistency, he can go off just as likely the team is to pack it up.


Joe Mixon has been looking better as of late and has a great matchup against the Miami Dolphins for Week 16. With the passing game even with Andy Dalton back still looking iffy I believe they will lean heavily on Mixon for this game. It doesn't mean I am comfortable with him, the Bengals are bi-polar and so are the Dolphins, a high scoring game is just as likely as 12-9 and no touchdowns scored.


Davante Adams on the High Risk High Reward list is not something I was expecting in 2019. I had him highly ranked but the Packers offense has not lived up to expectation, at least not for fantasy. With him either scoring all the points or no points over the season you still are gambling a bit with your Championship with Adams on your team, but a gamble with more upside than most.


Michael Gallup is a sneaky start this week. I was talking him up a ton before his knee injury happened and after that it has been a bit silent. This is his week to shine, as long as Prescott's shoulder is alright. The Eagles have been the 2nd worst passing defense in the league over the season so I am starting Gallup with hopes of a lot of upside, he's a lock for me in DFS.


To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD