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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 15

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are almost at the end people and hopefully you are still with me playing for silverware! If you are not, I still hope you are here to get the best Projections for your DFS teams. After Week 16 the content will be catered more towards DFS with focus on salaries and the best lineups each week.


Today, we again have the Score Projection and Risk Analysis with the change from last week still applied. The first four all have Risk Ratings that are low enough for them to be considered Safe and the last four have Risk Ratings above making them risky. Let's dig in!


If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.

Russell Wilson has had a couple of less than MVP games leading up to this one. He doesn't necessarily have a great matchup against the Panthers in Week 15 but I do believe in him. Quarterback with a high yearly average tend to bounce back after three rough games in a row and this is that game for Wilson.


Ryan Tannehill makes the Must Start List. Yep, that is right and it feels all kinds of wrong but he does deserve it! He has a higher completion rate than Matt Ryan had in his MVP season and has a great matchup against the Houston Texans. If Drew Lock can carve up the Texans so can the Titans after setting up the run. When Derrick Henry has gotten going in this game it will open up the Play-Action where Tannehill is extremely efficient.


I have been talking about Austin Ekeler a lot since last year and this will be no different. He's one of my favorite players in the league and has shown that he can dominate even when Melvin Gordon is playing. The matchup against the Minnesota Vikings is a good one in my book and Ekeler will run wild once again!


No Mike Evans no problem, you hopefully already is starting Chris Godwin and I try not to put a player that is this obvious on this list but this time I made an exception.


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I was hesitant to jump on the Brees train when he came back and he's been a bit up and down. Last week was a crazy game that is somewhat of an outlier. I think he's got a great chance to be good in Week 15 but if you are expecting five Touchdowns again I can see you getting disappointed.


DeVante Parker has a fantastic matchup and was getting hammered with targets until he went into the concussion protocol. It does look like he will be back and playing but for now he's high risk high reward. If he's good and ready to go he got a great opportunity with a high ceiling and the Giants should not scare anyone. They lost to the Eagles who don't even have any Receivers.


Another Titan in today's article is A.J. Brown. During the Mariota era I wrote several pieces explaining why it is a bad idea to start a Receiver on the Titans. Now with the Play-Action pass and Tannehill you can start A.J. Brown. Even if the Texans has been struggling against Quarterbacks they have done a pretty good job an limiting Wide Receivers. But, with a ceiling of 17.3 points in standard scoring and 23.3 in PPR he comes with a ton of upside.


D.J. Moore saw his least amount of targets since Week 5 against the Falcons. That is not happening again. If it does you can't expect too much but he definitely have upside of around 12-14 targets even against the Seattle Seahawks. That should be enough for him to get above 93 yards and perhaps a Touchdown. With that upside it is hard to sit him this week but be aware that his ceiling is 2 points lower than A.J. Brown at 15.3 for standard and the same at 23.3 in PPR.


To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD