Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today, if you live in the metro Atlanta area you can come out a to Big Sky in Buckhead and hang out with me. PrizePicks is hosting an event there tonight between 6 and 10 and I will be there around 8. If you have time and is interested, come and join us by registering on this link. There will be free food, drinks, giveaways and sports!
Today we have the Score Projections and Risk Analysis as always but I have made a small change to the Must Starts and High Risk High Reward players. I recently made a correlation analysis to figure out the ideal risk level for each position group. So instead listing the Risk Factor I will now only list Safe or Risky to make it easier do figure out who to start or not. In addition, the 4 Must start guys are all Safe and the other are Risky. Let's dig in!
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Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
Deshaun Waston has been -6.7 points below his yearly average over the last three weeks and that, for Quarterbacks generally signals a bounce back game. When you are getting too far from what you usually preform there will be a positive regression back to the mean and against the Broncos I expect him to at least scratch the 20 mark.
Nick Chubb has been scoring 27% above his average when playing against teams with below 500 records this year so facing the Bengals is a great opportunity for him for a good game. I fully trust him and see almost no risk in him Busting in Week 14. The Bengals have vastly improved their run defense over the last couple of Weeks but that is also due to the Jets for some reason not running the ball.
I am not a big Stefon DIggs fan but I do like him this week against Detroit Lions. They have really struggled defending against Wide Receivers and give up 25.8 points on average to the position. This is great news, especially since this is a perfect storm game for Diggs; he scores more points at home, vs teams with losing records that struggle against Wide Receivers!
Ryan Griffin might not have a super high projection but I trust him to be decent in this game. The Tight End position is extremely shallow right now and there isn't a lot of them that you can trust. Miami has improved a lot but their Tight End defense is still questionable.
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It is not just Stefon Diggs I want from the Minnesota Vikings. Kirk Cousins has an even better matchup as the Lions rank even worse against Quarterbacks. There is still a bust risk there but as the game is played at home at 1pm I am not too worried.
Austin Ekeler was featured in Tuesdays article but I wanted to mention him here as well. He has a great matchup but has to share with Melvin Gordon which is a problem. I really want to start him this week and if Gordon would have stayed away Ekeler would have been a must start for a much longer period this year.
Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley were limited yesterday but Dan Quinn never mentioned Ridley during his weekly radio spot. This makes me believe he's more worried about Julio giving Ridley an opening for a big game against the Panthers. Carolina give up 23.0 points on average to Wide Receivers and Ridley has a high Boom chance!
D.J. Moore is in a similar spot as Ridley. The have high Boom chances and good matchups. Atlanta is not a good pass defense and Moore has improved a lot in 2019. Before I made my Video analysis of him a few weeks back I didn't think too much of him but after seeing his numbers and digging a bit deeper I am really starting to come around on him. There is still a Bust risk of course with a Panthers Receiver, but if I want one of the Moore is my guy!
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD