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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 13

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, happy Thanksgiving! I know the last few weeks have been a bit off schedule and this one is no different. I decided to post the Score Projections today already to give y'all some more time as the holiday season officially starts tomorrow.

So today I am posting the usual Thursday information, tomorrow there will be no article and on Friday and Saturday I will be back with Videos on the YouTube Channel. Speaking of the YouTube Channel, I posted a new Video yesterday with a new concept. Check it out below before you continue reading! It showcases the Top 10 Touchdown Leaders from the Super Bowl Era. Let's dig in!

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.

Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.

Aaron Jones struggled a ton against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12 but I am a strong believer in him and what he has done this year. That means that I fully trust him to bounce back even against a tough opponent in the New York Giants. The Giants have actually been pretty good against Running Backs lately but that ends in Week 13.

Austin Ekeler is not the main back for the Chargers but he's still productive and I want him on my team against Denver. He had 16 targets last time these two teams faced each other and if he's close to that he'll be a PPR monster! Add that the Broncos have been up and down against Running Backs and you can see why this one interests me.

D.J. Chark has the best matchup for a Wide Receiver in Week 13. Tampa Bay played a pretty good game against the Falcons but they still allowed 16 points in standard scoring to Calvin Ridley. If Gardner Minshew was the starting Quarterback I would be even more excited but he's still in my must start group with Foles.

Jarvis Landry has had a sneakily good season after a slow start. He's right now WR #32 in standard scoring but WR #1 in over the last 3 and WR #2 over the last 5 weeks, that's incredible from a guy that is not being talked about too much! Pittsburgh is an average opponent for a Wide Receiver to play and he has an average schedule moving forward, I am a strong believer in him moving forward, especially for PPR.

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Before you say anything, Ryan Tannehill and Sam Darnold are not guys that I am telling you to start over Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and the likes but if you are in a pinch and need something out of the ordinary in Week 13 to make the playoffs consider changing Quarterback to spice it up.

I did not give D.J. Moore enough credit in my Video last week but for Week 13 I am somewhat excited to start him. Not that I think that he will repeat what he did in Week 12 but a Projection of 11.3 with Risk lower than 60% is very enticing and Washington doesn't scare me too much even with them playing Receivers decently recently, but that also comes from not really playing anyone major since Week 5 in Julian Edelman (I don't count Stefond Diggs, to unreliable).

The Los Angeles Rams on the other hand has actually held some top notch Receivers to below double digit points but showed against the Ravens that they are not a perfect cover defense. Enters Christian Kirk. He has grown on me a lot since the start of the season and I am very excited to see what he can do in 2020 but also in the end of 2019. This game he has a Ceiling of 18.2 points and I think he's going to sniff that.

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD