Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, after a hard week at my day job I just had time to finish the Projections for this week and post this article before I have to get back to it. The comments on the players are extremely brief but I will be back with more content tomorrow as the work project I have been working on is over tonight. Let's dig in!
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Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
I am extremely comfortable starting any of these four in Week 12. I don't know why I ever doubted Mark Ingram even for a second. With the Scheme Fit he has with the Ravens he was due for a bounce back!
Carson and Allen has extremely high Boom chances which makes it interesting to see what they can do and D.J. Chark has a very good matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
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Carr is again featured and I have issues with putting Derrick Henry on my lists week in and week out but his schedule is so fantastic that I have to talk about him almost every time I open my mind about Running Backs.
Mixon has a tough matchup but there are a lot of Running Backs with those this week impacting my projections. Look at Phillip Lindsay who's been better than Mixon and has a better matchup, his projection is still lower, but he of course comes with much lower Risk!
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD