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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 11

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are back with a regular Score Projection article again, no additional information or ROS Rankings. All focus will be on Week 11 and to give you the best outlook going into this week and win!

Sorry about yesterday and the cancellation of the Fantasy Rabbit Hole Podcast Week 11. I had some personal stuff going on that I had to handle and that had to take precedence over the show. I also regret to inform that I have a day time job event on Wednesday next week so will be tough to do the show next week as well. Let's dig in!

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.

Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.

Don't get me wrong on this one Matt Ryan is not my highest ranked Quarterback going into Week 11 or a Quarterback that I am extremely excited about. What I mean by putting him on the must start list is that if he's back healthy and starting your seasonal fantasy team need to put him in back at starting QB over someone like Trubisky and so on. There is no getting cute here, whoever covered you on his BYE and his missed week, if that is not a superstar he needs to be benched for Ryan.

Tevin Coleman does come with a fair amount of Risk but that is mainly due to the crowded backfield. He still has one of the higher Projections for a Running Back going into Week 11 and a great matchup against the Arizona Cardinals at home!

Amari Cooper has not been featured on any of my Thursday lists the entire season and considering what he's done and what he's doing at the moment I had to place him here. Of course you have been starting him before but this week it looks especially good against the Lions. I am eyeing Cooper as a DFS play with a low risk and safe points incoming.

Sorry for being misleading last week, but this week Josh Jacobs will be featured on the YouTube Channel so be sure to check that out tomorrow!

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You own Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson and need a BYE Week QB, enter Derek Carr. He comes with a ton of Risk but has a high Projection and a fantastic matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals at home. With an 11.5% Boom chance I am excited to see what Carr can do as a low cost Quarterback alternative in DFS as well, not just BYE Week help.

Josh Allen is another Quarterback that I am eyeing in DFS. He's playing the Miami Dolphins, not as good of matchup as it has been for Quarterbacks over the last couple of weeks but still good enough for Allen to be a great option with a high Boom chance. He also has a higher Projection than Carr and lower risk which is always nice!

OK, this is the riskiest player I have ever put on the high risk high reward list but I couldn't help myself. Brian Hill got 20 carries last week as the Falcons beat the Saints, and without Devonta Freeman in this game against the Panthers he is more than interesting. The Panthers are right now the absolute best team for a Running Back to play right now and if Hill can reach 20 carries again he'll put up points!

Melvin Gordon is another Running Back that has a terrific matchup. You saw what Derrick Henry did last week and Melvin Gordon is a better Running Back. I am starting Austin Ekeler in one league and Gordon in another as I like both as gamble plays against the Chiefs. The Boom chance is not there with Gordon but if he can reach 14 I am more than happy with starting him in a flex spot.

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD