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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 10 + TE ROS Rankings

Updated: Nov 8, 2019

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, it will not be as much content as last week but we it is still a jam packed article so I will keep the introduction to a minimum.

Today just as last week it will be both the regular Score Projection stuff, Must Starts, High Risk High Reward. But, I will also reveal my ROS Rankings for Tight Ends. Let's dig in!

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.

Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.

Kyler Murray is again a must start Quarterback for me in Week 10. He has a fantastic opponent as he will have a lot of times as we go on in the season. In Week 10 he's facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and is on the lower side of things when it comes to Risk with a good projection even if it is not the highest.

Josh Jacobs will be fully covered tomorrow on the YouTube Channel so be sure to check that out!

Derrick Henry is playing the Kansas City Chiefs who have struggled against Running Backs and what an opportunity for him to have one of those big games that he's known for. I am not usually a fan of his but this week I am all for starting him both in seasonal leagues and in DFS.

I hope you weren't planning on sitting Tyler Lockett just because he's playing the San Francisco 49ers? He is a must start every week form now on and is on a tear that actually started last year. When Baldwin went down in 2018 he became a favorite of mine as he's been heavily undervalued, that is not the case no more as he gains notoriety but if you own him, start him!

Matthew Stafford was my High Risk High Reward Quarterback in Week 9 as well. The Chicago defense has been good against Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers even though they have been terrible against the run. I don't think this will stop Stafford even though he is above 60% Risk.

Alvin Kamara is expected to play against the Falcons and that is the reason Latavius Murray is on this list. The Atlanta Falcons are terrible even if their run defense is average. I am worried that with Kamara back Murray takes the back seat again just as much as I believe that Murray still will be the lead as the Saints roll over the Falcons.

As I was saying with Matthew Stafford, the Chicago Bears have been good against Wide Receivers, they are the second worst team for a Wide Receiver to play right now. So even with how well Golladay has been playing and a low Risk of reaching his Projection I am somewhat worried. He is not a lock for me in Week 10 and I won't be playing him in DFS.

Bruce Arians has said that he expects O.J. Howard to play in Week 10 against the Arizona Cardinals and they are terrible against the Tight End position. So even with him being awful earlier in the year and being out since Week 6 if you need a Tight End he is worth a gamble over someone like Jason Witten who has a tough game in Week 10. Speaking of Tight Ends, scroll down for the Tight End ROS Rankings!

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Austin Hooper has a below average schedule but the Tight End position is crap for fantasy in 2019. I am not even sure I would have been able to fill an entire article with Tight End content right now. I am so disappointed in the position and what it has done for fantasy this year! Austin Hooper kinda becomes the best Tight End to have on your team by default and not because he's been amazing.

Same can almost be said for Hunter Henry, he has a decent schedule and has shown some flashes on a team that struggle in the Red Zone, nothing special, he's even been hurt and I rank him this high going forward, that says something.

George Kittle has actually been good but not great which is what I had in mind for him. He does have a fantastic schedule but the 49ers keep running the ball which takes away from him and all these Touchdowns called back for penalties has really killed his overall production.

The Darrens have been pleasant surprises and I am super excited to see both of them closing out this season. Waller has a terrible schedule but lacks competition for targets and looks to be Derek Carr's go to guy so I am not too worried. For Fells, Watson loves to target him in the Red Zone with 24.3% of the team's Red Zone targets so far, that is a great number, especially when you consider that DeAndre Hopkins has the same amount!

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

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