Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are back! Finally real football is about to be played tonight and you know what that means? That means I am back with the Score Projection and Risk Analysis series.
Last year was such a huge success with the Must Start and High Risk High Rewards part of this series that I am bringing it back again for 2019. I dig into four players in each category and give my thoughts on them, but, you can of course get the projections for all players by clicking the link down below.
Every Thursday from now on will have the Score Projection and Risk Analysis article in combination with the full breakdown as well. Tuesdays will as usual be a review of the Projection and Waiver Wire for next week. I have yet to set the YouTube Schedule but it will be at least 1 Live Stream, 12pm ET on Sundays, and 1 Video as well but I am working on another Video project and another Stream project so this year will be jam packed with fantasy content!
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page! Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
I love me some Kirk Cousins, I am starting him in every league I own him in for Week 1. Even with Dan Quinn taking on the defensive coordinator duties in Atlanta and the Falcons having all their defensive stars back I still believe Cousins will rack up points Week 1.
Phillip Lindsay is one of my favorite players in the NFL right now, I drafted him in pretty much every league I am in for 2019 and I can't wait for him to run like a mad man in Week 1! He has one of the higher Projection and even if his Risk isn't the lowest he still plays one of the worst rush defenses from last year and have a good chance of Booming.
Stefon Diggs just got back into practice today and that makes him a must start against the Falcons. As you can see I am not too excited about my hometown team for Week 1. The Vikings have so many options in the attack that Diggs will but up that 9 points without any struggles.
Tyler Eifert maybe should have been down in the High Risk - High Rewards group but I could not help myself, I am starting him! Week 1, before he gets hurt I want that Touchdown and 25 yards on two catches. I know I have him projection for only 5.9 points but you gotta see how high that Boom chance is in addition to the low Risk of not reaching the Projection.
Winston has pretty much the same Projection and Risk as Cousins but he is playing a slightly better defense vs. Quarterbacks and doesn't have the same Boom chance. I like what Bruce Arians brings to Tampa but for Week 1 there are still plenty of question marks and you start him with that in mind, he might go off or be a complete disaster.
Austin Ekeler has shouldered the role as Melvin Gordon's stand in before with mixed results. I usually love Ekeler even with Gordon in the lineup but I am a bit vary of just plugging him in and expecting the same production as a pro-bowl Running Back. Add that he has a tough opponent that gave up the 23rd least points to Running Backs in the Colts and it would't be totally weird if he struggled or had 3 Touchdowns.
Dante Pettis is a favorite of mine this year but I still want to see Week 1 before I start him all across my leagues. I believe in his Receiving patterns a ton but I gotta see something in Week 1 to bench players like Stefon Diggs for Pettis.
I am not sold on Jared Cook. I think people have him a little too highly ranked due to Brees history with Tight Ends. The Tight End dominance in New Orleans is long gone and it is all about Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. I would't be surprised if Cook gets a Touchdown but a bunch of yards on top of that might be a reach Week 1. Still he is a High Risk High Reward type player this week.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab. If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, become an Extreme Fantasy Faithful on the CSD Fantasy Patreon Page!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD