Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today we are getting into the Value series here at CSD Fantasy where we will be looking into value for Running Backs, Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers. We are starting with the Running Backs today and I will explain more about what makes a Running Back valuable later in this article. Let's dig in!
Starting off we need to define what we mean with valuable and value. For this article I have a few different situations where I find certain stats more valuable than others. With valuable I mean that a Running Back's ADP should correspond to his numbers. What I mean by this is that if Running Back X has an ADP of 1 with a floor of 1 and a ceiling of 2 while Running Back Z has an ADP of 2 with the same floor and ceiling Running Back Z is the more valuable one. You will get the same numbers for a cheaper draft pick.
For the numbers and stats I set my draft board after two numbers while my seasonal score projection is kept in the background. The reason for not involving my score projection in this exercise is that I don't have a projection for all players so that would force us to compare apples with oranges. Anyway, the numbers we have are the one game floor and the one game ceiling.
In rounds 1-4 I like to draft safe players with a high floor but that does not mean that I don't take the ceiling into consideration. I will value the floor higher and I have quantified that value as a 20% increase for the floor in those rounds. A quick example, Player Y has a floor of 1 and ceiling of 2. In rounds 1-4 he gets 3.2 Draft Points, 2 from his ceiling and 1.2 from his floor. If the floor was 2 he would have had 4.4 Draft Points.
In rounds 5-6 I just want the best overall player, I don't value the floor or ceiling higher than the other so nothing to calculate here. A 1 point floor and 2 point ceiling equals 3 Draft Points.
In rounds 7 and beyond I value the ceiling more than the floor. I want players that have shown that they have the ability to score a ton of points in one game because that means that they can do it again and maybe on a more consistent basis. Here the ceiling is bumped up with 20% instead of the floor.
I know this is a lot to take in but it will all become clearer with the table below!
There are some rounds where almost no Running Back is currently being drafted so you have to take that into consideration. For instance, there is only Nyheim Hines going in the 12th right now so instead of going with him you might want to wait and get a Rookie, Quarterback or Wide Receiver instead.
Not everyone on this list have been talked about in my previous articles as players that I would like to draft so seeing this makes it a lot more clearer. James White is someone that I will be looking at in situations where I miss out on Running Backs and Boston Scott is a great option on the chance that Miles Sanders isn't what we think or if he gets hurt.
This is of course only the most valuable Running Back in each round and does not help you to get the second or third guy but don't you worry! Patron's has access to the full rankings: If you click this link I have the complete list of Running Backs that go in rounds 1-20 with their floor, ceiling and Draft Points!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD