Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am looking at the most stable Running Backs for fantasy football, well, the first group of them. These guys are not the ones you want to target in the 1st or maybe even the 2nd round but they will provide great stability for your team if you are in need of a back in the 3rd round and beyond.
There will be no Video this weekend as I am having to finish out some personal stuff before the grind for July starts.
One Game Floor: I take the performances of all the Running Backs from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game floor" or just "Floor". Example: Kenyan Drake has a 4.2 one game floor, that means that there is only a 16% risk that he will score less than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Kenyan Drake really came on strong at the end of 2019 but as my numbers take into account what you have done in the past as well he suffers a lot on this list. He’s in a much better position now than he’s ever been for scoring fantasy points but we still have never seen him do it consistently for a full year. I am OK with drafting him in the 3rd-6th round but going in the 1st in 12-team PPR is insane. Don’t get on the hype train with someone that’s been as inconsistent as Drake in the past, the Arizona Cardinals might be everyone’s darlings going in 2020 but I wouldn’t overspend to get Drake.
Carlos Hyde just joined the Seattle Seahawks to further crowd that backfield. With this move he’s not only made himself undraftable but he’s made Chris Carson a lot less draftable as well. I don’t care if this move makes a ton of sense for the Seahawks as Carson is coming back from injury, when both these two are healthy neither of them will be good enough for me to spend a decent draft pick on them. Hyde is luckily still going in the 14th round so you can take a flier on him and hope he’s RB1 in Seattle for the first couple of weeks and trade him, otherwise try to stay away.
For my full David Johnson take check out: Why the Texans Move Make Sense for David Johnson
Aaron Jones ranked 4th of the ceiling rankings and all the way down at 24 here today. He’s so gosh darn inconsistent and now with even more competition in that Green Bay backfield I have a hard time seeing him on my team for 2020. However, he’s fallen to the 2nd round now and if he keeps falling to the point that I can get him in the 4th or 5th I will be more than happy to draft him as my 2nd Running Back. With a floor this low I can never justify a pick in the first three rounds, that will never happen for me, I follow the numbers and let them lead me to victory.
Just as with Aaron Jones I can’t justify drafting Derrick Henry anywhere near the first rounds, he has been way too inconsistent for me to trust him to lead me fantasy team on a weekly basis. I much rather take a Nick Chubb that has a smaller sample size and is still improving his floor and goes a full round after. My problem with Chubb is instead Kareem Hunt who is a very real concern for touchdowns. No, of these three I am eyeing David Montgomery and I don’t even like him as a runner, but for value he’s just below Henry with his floor but three rounds cheaper.
Philip Lindsay is rapidly falling down the ADP but with Melvin Gordon joining the ranks he’s a tough sell as an RB1 or 2 but I will say that this, take a chance on him in the 9th or 10th just in case. He’s still a great runner and with fantastic rushing patterns you know he can get the job done if something were to happen to Gordon.
Miles Sanders and Austin Ekeler are going a bit high in my book but I don’t think you will get an opportunity to get them any later than the 2nd round. There is going to be a scramble to get really good backs in rounds one and two so these type of guys will be a bit overpriced overall while for the position it makes a lot of sense. There just isn't that many Wide Receivers going in the first two rounds that the Running Backs that are round three talents are pushed up another round. I will have to get used to this and as we get closer to draft time I will post my value rankings so you know exactly who to target and when.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
Till next time! // CSD