Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am looking at my favorite position for fantasy, Running Backs. I love a good Wide Receiver while watching football but for fantasy nothing really gets my juices flowing as a potential lead back or a guy that can come off the bench and change your fantasy season completely. There is also the whole Running Back By Committee vs. Bell Cow approaches that teams use which causes a lot of headaches for us in fantasy, you don't really see that for Wide Receivers or Quarterbacks.
If you are new to the Ceiling Rankings read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Ceiling: I take the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Devin Singletary has a 18.7 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
I have been a fan of Singletary this off-season but I might have to rethink this somewhat in PPR. As I am transition more into PPR his lack receptions is concerning for a many reasons. One of them is keeping his ceiling low even with some big games under his belt. With the lack of competition in the backfield for the Buffalo Bills I am not totally off the Singletary train but it is something to keep in mind when drafting him, especially with Diggs joining the pass catching group as well.
Since Phillip Lindsay entered the league I have been one of his biggest fan, I love his rushing patterns as they match the prototypical fantasy running back and I was anticipating the offense to be a bit better than what they where. However, with Melvin Gordon joining the ranks in Denver the Running Back group for the Broncos is now too crowded for me. I will say this though, with his current ADP of the 9th round I will be taking a gamble on him. As the rushing patterns are still there and anything can happen for a Running Back, health wise, that is a price I am willing to pay.
Raheem Mostert has until last weekend been a guy that has been scary to me. He had such a great end to the season that I was worried his ADP was going to be through the roof and not actually be on par with his abilities. After preparing my Fantasy Snapshot Video of him that will be released on the YouTube channel in July I have come to the conclusion that he is great! With Matt Breida gone to the Miami Dolphins and Mostert going in the 5th round, give me all the shares!
I am very disappointed in Josh Jacobs being this far down. But I guess when you look at his season as a whole it was somewhat disappointing. Finishing 21st in PPR isn’t that great for what he was hyped up to be, sure he only played 13 games but Dalvin Cook played 14 and scored 100 more points, that is not a small difference! Right now he’s going in the 1st round which is too rich for me considering how far down he is on the Ceiling Rankings, I know I always say I want a high floor in the early rounds but you gotta have some ability to win me a week or two as well.
For my full David Johnson take with a sprinkle of Kenyan Drake and why you can get both and be happy about that. Check out my latest video down below!
I am a huge Mark Ingram fan since the move over to the Ravens. I have said it before but I will say it again, I have never seen such a great scheme fit in a free agent before or after. With that said, you will have to know what you are drafting with Ingram. He's not a guy that will get 25 carries per game in the the Baltimore Ravens offense so 23.1 is the best case scenario and you should be OK with that. He's currently going in the 4th round, well after Kenyan Drake and 32nd ranked Devin Singletary. Ingram is still a fantastic value pick for the guaranteed carries and especially the ones in the Red Zone!
Check out the Fantasy Rabbit Hole Podcast on Wednesday live on YouTube and Periscope or wherever you get your Podcasts by going Anchor.
My next Video will come out this weekend and focus on the Rise and Fall of Dez Bryant and his fantasy career.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
Till next time! // CSD