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Today I will be looking at the Running Backs with some of the highest one game Ceiling. These Running Backs are perfect to get in round 5 and onward. It is perfect to have one or two of these guys to mix and match at your flex spot. They have high Ceilings so you know that when they have a good game it will be a real good one but you don't have too worry about their Floors as you have options to change them out when they have a tough match-up.
One Game Ceiling: New for this year is a tweaked Floor and Ceiling formula so if you are unfamiliar with the new formula please head over to the Quarterback Rankings and check out the first couple of paragraphs where I explain it all. In case you are fully aware, stay here. Let's dig in!
Lamar Miller and Tevin Coleman are right now going 4 spots from each other in the middle of the seventh round. This is perfect for guys with high Ceilings. They don’t cost too much, they have the opportunity to be lead backs but we don’t want them as our lead back on our fantasy team. You can pick them up, stream them on a regular basis when they have a good match-up or if they emerge as the lead back on their offense you have a guy that will have a huge amount of carries as your flex player.
For Murray, I would only draft him if I draft Kamara and feel like I need a handcuff and even then I am not so sure. You gotta spend the 91st pick overall on him right now which is a little expensive.
I have to present these three but really I don’t want anyone of them, but if I have to pick one I’ll wait and see if Jay Ajayi gets picked up anywhere with desperate need of a lead back. He has shown game winning ability but these three aren’t close to ideal situations.
I have talked a lot this off-season how much I don’t like Jordan Howard and I will just say it again. I don’t want him on my team. Sure he has a higher Ceiling than Coleman and Miller but his fit with the Eagles is terrible and they handle Running Backs the same way as the Patriots, meaning you have no idea who’s going to be the guy for the day.
Chris Carson is way cheaper than Aaron Jones and is in a range where you want start thinking about the Ceiling a bit more. It is still early to be focused on the Ceiling at 41st overall but it is still 15 picks after Jones. So he to me has a bit more value in this regard. I know that both of them will produce roughly as many points on a good week but Chris Carson also has a much higher Floor. He is the superior pick in my book with a higher Floor, same Ceiling and goes later in drafts.
Mixon and Cook are almost in the same situation as Jones and Carson. However, here the better pick overall for is Mixon even though he has a higher price. Mixon’s overall ADP right now is 14th while Cook goes four picks later. But, with a higher Floor and a higher Ceiling. You can’t really justify paying a cheaper price for Cook when Mixon is the better pick. I usually look for guys with similar stats in a round or two later but in this case you have to pay the price to get the better player. Mack is cheaper than both but his Floor is so far behind that he can’t be part of the same discussion.
Derrick Henry of course has a high Ceiling but are you really going to trust that guy. He is a non-factor in fantasy for almost an entire year until he has a couple of good games and a really really good one. He is the poster boy for a high Ceiling and low Floor and if he had an ADP in the 6th round I would be OK with it and happily draft him but in going in the early 4th, that is a reach.
Lindsay goes three picks later, has a higher Ceiling and a much higher Floor. I know I know, he has the asterisk due to his small sample size. But in this case I rather go with the guy that hasn’t shown enough vs. Derrick Henry who has shown us over three years that he is a boom or bust guy. I love me a good boom guy for my flex spot, but if I have to chose, draft a guy that can’t even produce on RB2 levels on a consistent basis with a high pick or not draft him at all, I’m going with not at all.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD