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Today I am looking at what I believe is the most important stat when drafting a fantasy Quarterback, the one game floor. If you wait deep into drafts you can find amazing value by looking at the floor and in turn get a stable fantasy producer at Quarterback week in and week out.
One Game Floor: I take the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "Floor". Example: Josh Allen has a 9.2 one game floor, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Aaron Rodgers pretty much had the biggest fall from grace from 2018 to 2019 in my rankings. As I adjust for the last three years but put more emphasis on the most recent year jumps this big aren't super common. Rodgers went from having the second highest floor last year to 20th! That is incredible and shows how dangerous it can be to draft a Quarterback too high.
The rest of this first group is no big surprise, these guys can have fantastic days but are far from consistent in their fantasy production. Mayfield and Allen have yet to find stability in their scoring while Winston probably never will find it.
Again, Cam Newton doesn't have a team at the writing of this article but I did want to showcase his floor for future reference.
Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers are so average in fantasy. They don't have crazy high ceilings to make up for a floor that is this low and they don't have a high enough floor that you are OK with them not having massive weeks. I don't see myself drafting either of them unless my entire draft board is emptied out in round 15. In comparison, Brees has the 13th highest floor and the 5th highest ceiling, neither Cousins or Rivers cracked the top 20 for ceilings.
If the price is right for Roethlisberger and Brady I am OK with drafting either of them. In 12 team leagues they are now going in the 12th and 13th round which is pretty nice. I do expect Brady to improve a lot in fantasy with his new weapons and if Roethlisberger's mind is right we know how good of a fantasy Quarterback he can be.
I talked a lot about Stafford last week and he's still very interesting to me. 11th round for him seems a little pricey in a 12 team league but he falls a round or two I will definitely pounce on him. He got a little lower ceiling than most guys this high on the floor rankings but if the price goes lower than Brady or Big Ben I am all in.
Gardner Minshew definitely is missing his asterisk in the table above but with only a year in the league on a team that seems to be tanking, I would watch out. They probably are going to be throwing a lot but that still doesn't make me too excited with the limited weapons he have at his disposal.
As we get higher up in the rankings so does the ADP for this year. When I compared ADP to where I have these guys ranked it matches up pretty well. This is not something that I like! I prefer to find a high floor Quarterback far down in the draft and roll with him, right now if I want Matt Ryan I will have to draft him in the 8th, Dak Prescott in the 6th. I don't plan to draft a Quarterback that high so if none of these guys start falling or ADP goes down there I will look more towards the Quarterback earlier in this article.
Carson Wentz who I had at 19 in the ceiling rankings ranks extremely high in floor and would generally be a guy that I would look to draft as people are a bit down on the receiving corp in Philly and the team has lost a bit of momentum, perfect for a lower ADP right? Wrong, Wentz is going in the 7th round!? Last year I could have got Deshaun Watson, in the 7th round, a guy that has a much higher floor and ceiling than Carson Wentz.
Even Kyler Murray with a high floor but small sample size is being drafted extremely early. I am starting to believe that the thousands of mock drafts that make up the current ADP is impacted by us not having done the draft yet and people just going Quarterback extremely early this year. Jimmy freaking G is going in the 9th right now, I would question everything in your fantasy draft if you pick Jimmy Garoppolo in the 9th with the weapons he has around him going into 2020.
At least the top four, Lamar Jackson included with these three, are no-brainers. These guys should be the top four picks going into 2020 for the Quarterback position. Wilson will probably be the last of the board in my opinion even and with him placing 3rd here and 4th on the ceiling rankings I fully believe that is the right idea.
Watson to me, even without DeAndre Hopkins is the guy that is closes in value to his ADP. Going in the 4th round right now compared to Mahomes and Jackson in the second makes him more of a value pick even if it is way to early for a Quarterback.
As we move closer to August and the actual fantasy drafts (assuming there will be football) I hope to see big changes in ADP and where some of these guys end up. Right now, Quarterbacks are going way too early for my taste. But, if people in your league keeps insisting on a Quarterback early on, hurt them by getting the best Running Backs and Wide Receivers!
This Saturday I will post the Free Agency Scheme Fit Video featuring Teddy Bridgewater & the Carolina Panthers so if you have a moment to spare in your draft viewing, be sure to check that out!
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Till next time! // CSD