Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I will get into Quarterbacks for the first time in 2019! There will be more content than ever on all CSD Fantasy platforms leading into the start of the NFL season so be sure to stay up to date on the website, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram.
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New for this year is a tweaked Floor and Ceiling formula so be sure to read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Floor: I have taken the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. (NEW) I have also added a weight to have the latest season be worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% risk of not being reached each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land under this number and this is why I call this the "one game Floor" or just "Floor". Let's dig in!
We of course have Patrick Mahomes leading the way into 2019 there is no way around that. His 2018 season was something else when it came to fantasy scoring and even with an asterisk he is my clear cut Floor leader for Quarterbacks going into next year.
Rodgers and Luck are almost a tier of their own right below 14 points. I was a big proponent of drafting Luck last year as his Floor used to be high before his injury and now you can be even more sure of him going into next year. (8/25: Luck got removed due to retirement)
Matt Ryan has been a go to guy own mine for a few years as his Floor usually has him high on this ranking list but with the caveat that people still don't view him as elite. The thing though, is, that you can only draft him every other year as people remember how good he is for fantasy one year and forget to next. With him being QB2 last year I am afraid that he'll be too expensive.
Pay Day has come again for Russell Wilson and with that comes a whole set of new problems. Will this be the last year the Seahawks can put talent around him? We also don't know about Doug Baldwin and Mike Davis is gone. There will be a lot on Wilson's shoulders but he has shown he has been up to the task before.
In my Baker Mayfield Breakdown I talked about how much I look forward to drafting him. That was before the acquired Odell Beckham Jr., now I want him even more! In the Scheme Fit Video I discussed how well they fit each other and how Mayfield's passing patterns correlates with fantasy scoring. All this with a top 10 Floor is fantastic, but, he is now being drafted in the fifth round, that is way too high for me to draft a Quarterback. I think you'll be very happy with your pick if you draft him but I also believe that you can get quality scoring way later in drafts for the Quarterback position.
As you can see with the 10-12 guys, you can get Quarterbacks with Floors close to Baker Mayfield's for a lower draft pick. All these three Quarterbacks right now has and ADP lower than Baker Mayfield. Sure, Roethlisberger has lost one of the best Receivers in the league, Brees looked like he was declining at the end of the season but Rivers still looked good with a stacked offense that gets it's top Tight End back.
Rivers is going about two rounds after Mayfield right now and will probably fall a bit more after the NFL Draft. What I'm trying to say is that the Floor is to be used as an indicator of how many points you can assume a player will get you on a bad week but you have to take the ADP into account as well. Just because Mahomes has the highest Floor does not mean that he should be your main target in every draft. Of course I want the guy with the highest Floor but I don't want to overpay for it but I am getting off track.
The group of Quarterbacks that land in the 13-16 places are Quarterbacks that generally has the ability to land at a decent seasonal spot with the exception of Jimmy Garoppolo. The other three has had really good season but struggles to produce really high Floors.
However, since they have showed in the past what they have the ability to do and due to the fact that the difference between a high Floor QB and a low Floor QB is less than for any other position you can still draft these guys and be confident that they will get you a fair bit of points on a bad week. I much rather wait until round 12 and draft Dak Prescott than go for Baker Mayfield in round four. If both of them have a bad week at the same time that means that the Mayfield owner will get roughly 1.5 more points than me that week, I am OK with that if my Running Back or Wide Receiver has a bigger Floor disparity.
The last group are to me where we have a big fall off. Between Prescott and Stafford there is a whole point so this is really where I draw the line of how long I want to wait for a QB. Between Tom Brady who has the sixth highest Floor and Dak Prescott there is 2 points, that shows just how steep the drop off is between 16 and 17.
The only guy that I would consider drafting in this group is Jameis Winston as I have previously stated in my Scheme Fit Video with him and Bruce Arians. This is mainly due to how well the play style of Winston fits with the play calling of Arians. The other guys all have major downsides, with Dalton being the most average Quarterback the NFL has ever seen, Stafford never taking it to the next level and Goff not posting a higher Floor with one of the best offenses in the entire league.
There will be no Video on the YouTube channel this weekend as I have family in town but I'll be back again next week with new content!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD