Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, Rankings are back baby! This makes me feel right at home, even with the world in chaos and we have no idea if there even will be any NFL in the fall I refuse to stop my yearly rankings. Today is a fantastic day to start ranking Quarterbacks One Game Ceilings as the sun is shining and birds are chirping outside.
If you are new to the Ceiling Rankings read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
One Game Ceiling: I take the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Josh Allen has a 28.2 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
We are starting 2020 with some really interesting names far down the list. These guys won't win that many games for you own your own in 2020 but it is not like it will never happen, I hope that make sense?
To make it a little clearer, this list is extremely competitive as there is only 3.7 points between Matthew Stafford at 20 and Drew Brees at 5. The Ceiling rankings have never been this close before and that is why I say it is interesting to have these names this far down. Stafford was looking like an MVP candidate before he got hurt, Brady got a ton more weapons and Kyler Murray is entering his second year with DeAndre Hopkins joing his arsenal. A little spoiler for next week, they will rank higher in the Floor rankings.
I am a bit surprised to see Josh Allen this far down the list, I was anticipating to see him a bit higher and much lower on the Floor rankings. That is my bias from not having done the numbers and I am actually pretty impressed with him staying above players like Tannehill and Matt Ryan.
Speaking of Tannehill, I will make sure to look extra deep into his 2019 season before the start of 2020 as his ADP is way down below the other Quarterbacks in his Ceiling range. I have never been a fan of him or of the Quarterback play showcased in Tennessee over the last few years so what he did last year was a breath of fresh air.
I have named this group "No Starting Role, No Problem". All these guys when they play have higher Ceilings than a lot of other Quarterbacks in the league but right now they don't seem to be getting a starting job as we enter 2020. Sure FItzpatrick is technically the starting Quarterback for the Miami Dolphins but that is far from a certainty.
I want to make it clear, I am just presenting the numbers for these three, not advocating for you to draft them.
Super impressed with Daniel Jones' first year playing for the New York Giants. As a Cowboys fan I wish this wasn't the case but I will give it too him, for fantasy at least he was pretty decent. The sample size is very small so don't go all in on drafting him just yet, I would like to see what the do in the draft on the offensive side before I start looking at him as an option.
Rodgers and Roethlisberger are still big names on the Ceiling rankings even if they have fallen quite far over the last few years. Seeing as Rodgers is currently going in the sixth round and Roethlisberger in the 13th I would gamble on Big Ben instead of paying an overprice for Rodgers.
Carson Wentz is going in the 7th round and Dak Prescott in the 6th round, I will say, I do value the Floor rankings higher than the Ceiling for Quarterbacks but come on, that price for Wentz is insane! You can even get Drew Brees in the 11th right now instead of going Wentz in the 7th.
Don't stare yourself blind on Quarterbacks with high risk high reward when you can wait longer in drafts and get a replacement that is just as good if not better. There is no reason to overdraft a guy like Wentz hoping he can reach the heights he has showcased in the past, especially with the lack of weapons he has right now.
I bet you weren't prepared to see these three topping the list were you? You were? OK, yeah this was pretty clear while preparing the numbers that Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahome and Lamar Jackson would easily be in a group by themselves.
There were talks about Russell Wilson being in the MVP race last year and I do subscribe to that but in fantasy there is a gap down to him from Watson. Furthermore, this is the first big gap I have for the top 20 Quarterbacks and the second gap is between Mahomes and Jackson which is even more insane! Depending on Jackson's Floor rankings I might make an exception for him and draft a Quarterback earlier than I normally do, but we'll have to wait and see.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
Till next time! // CSD