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Quarterback Ceiling Rankings

Updated: Aug 25, 2019

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I know that I skipped over the Live Stream last week and this week and also took a break from the weekly Videos but after the draft I will be back with my regular schedule. On Monday I will discuss my thoughts on the draft during the Live Stream, Thursday will see the first Wide Receiver Rankings followed up by a new Scheme Fit Video featuring Mark Ingram & Ravens.

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New for this year is a tweaked Floor and Ceiling formula so be sure to read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.

One Game Ceiling: I have taken the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. (NEW) I have also added a weight to have the latest season be worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.

The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).

By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Josh Allen has a 28.2 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!

When it comes to the Ceiling we have a little bit of a change in the top three. Sure Mahomes and Rodgers are still there but Deshaun Watson has taken over the second spot and Andrew Luck is nowhere to be found until much later in this article.

With Mahomes and Rodgers topping the Floor Rankings and the Ceiling Rankings make them the only two Quarterbacks that I would be willing to draft in a round earlier than the 7th. The combination of stability in their scoring with the game winning upside make them extremely suitable to draft. You never have to worry about their bad weeks being to bad and you can count on them to carry your team when they have a good week.

Watson is right behind Mahomes and Rodgers cause even if he wasn't top three in the Floor Rankings he still had the fourth highest Floor.

Josh Allen will be extremely interesting in DFS and best ball for next year. His Floor is still way too low for me to be interested in him for a seasonal league but for a game here and there I low a high Ceiling. The asterisk next to his name is for the same reason as Patrick Mahomes, they have a very small sample size, meaning that any statistical conclusion should be taken lightly.

Matt Ryan finishes in the second tier for Ceiling just as he did with Floor. I discussed last week that I was worried about his ADP for 2019 but since then he has actually fallen a whole round down to the tenth in a ten team league. That puts him back on the table for me and if he can stay there or in the eight tops I am all in on him.

In my Floor Rankings I mentioned and again on Twitter that I am scared of using Jared Goff as my seasonal Quarterback. However, that does not mean that he doesn't have value in fantasy. He does have the eight highest Ceiling of the Quarterbacks and with that he has tremendous value in DFS and best ball. As I have stated in the past, I value the Ceiling way more for Wide Receivers and Kickers than I do for Quarterbacks so just because Goff has a high Ceiling doesn't mean that I would like to have him on my seasonal fantasy team.

Roethlisberger is a fringe guy for me this year. He has the seventh highest Ceiling and the 11th highest Floor. He has never been a Floor guy but he did raise it in 2018 but lost Antonio Brown for 2019. There is just so much that is going on in Pittsburgh that I think you should hold off on drafting Big Ben at least to rounds twelve and beyond.

Andrew Luck was my go to guy last year thanks to his Floor but I was hoping to see a bit higher Ceiling for him going into next year. I do value the Floor way more than the Ceiling for Quarterbacks but I still would like to know that there are not 10 guys ahead of my QB when they have good weeks. Luck is right on that edge were you can't trust him to carry your team on a good week but he is still not bad enough that you question why you even drafted him. (Luck Retired on 8/25, but I need the text for Wilson context)

The same can be said for Russell Wilson. His best games are not the best but they are still good enough that you will struggle to find guys that will outscore him when he is having a good day.

The gap down to Tom Brady is minimal and the roles were reversed in the Floor Rankings so I guess Wilson and Brady will come down to ADP for me on who to draft.

I debated putting certain Quarterbacks on this list, for instance I removed Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard from this list and the list from last week due to the fact that they most likely will not be starting Quarterbacks when the season roles along. I don't think that Ryan Fitzpatrick should be a starting Quarterback but right now he is and if there is something that he can bring to fantasy football it is his Ceiling. In fact, it could have been way higher but the Ceiling is impacted by consistency as well so you can't just dominate the league for three weeks every couple of years and then be terrible for the rest of the time.

Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins I think have found their right spot as both of them ranked in this group in the Floor Rankings as well. They are good fantasy Quarterbacks but nothing more than that. They have had their 15 minutes and might have 15 more some time but not year to year and not like the fantasy stars. These are guys that you'll look to in deeper leagues or 2QB leagues as their Ceiling is not high enough right now to be best ball worthy or DFS guys (of course you can use them in DFS in good match ups but generally speaking).

The last group even with it including former MVP candidate Carson Wentz and Old man Rivers are not the most explosive in fantasy scoring. They can provide good points on a weekly basis but they have not shown consistency in their big game scoring. A big game here and there is not what the Ceiling Rankings is about. I want the Quarterback that when he has a good day has a really freaking good day. Rivers and the others can have good days but they will most likely not put your fantasy team on their backs even on those days.

This Saturday I will post the Free Agency Scheme Fit Video featuring Mark Ingram & the Baltimore Ravens so if you have a moment to spare in your draft viewing, be sure to check that out!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD