Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are back preparing for either your DFS lineup for next week but hopefully your first round of playoffs! I managed to reach three out of four playoffs this year which I am happy with. I love to hear how your season has been so please hit me up on twitter or Instagram @csdfantasy or YouTube and let me know how it's gone!
Today as I mentioned above we are prepping for Week 15. It will be similar to last Tuesday's article but more focus on the week at hand and matchup based. So some of these players will be highly irrelevant as they are owned or terrible enough to not be impacted that much by the matchup.
Don't miss our new Podcast/LiveShow on YouTube tomorrow at 9pm ET! As always check out the Score Projection and Risk Analysis article on Thursday right here on csdfantasy.com. Let's dig in!
For the Quarterback position all the good matchups in Week 15 goes to Quarterbacks you don't want to start. I was higher on Gardner Minshew earlier in the year but that went away with Foles coming back and how the team as a whole has progressed. Even with the best matchup in the league right now I can't play him.
The same can be said for the other three Quarterbacks. Their teams are not good enough to warrant a starting spot on a fantasy team in the playoffs. They can be used as low cost options on DFS teams where you pay a ton for Running Backs or Wide Receivers and need a cheap Quarteback. In that case I would roll with Fitzpatrick as he has the highest projection even with the inherent Risk that comes with him.
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I put Josh Jacobs on the list here even with him potentially being out. He is having his MRI this week so we will know more but in the case he can't play DeAndre Washington looks to be in pole position to get the largest chunk of the carries against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has been by far the worst team against the run as of late, giving up 28.9 points on average to Running Backs if we adjust for seasonal and three game averages. That is high enough for me to gamble on Washington if Jacobs is out.
The three other guys will very much be owned in leagues but I want you to be aware how great these matchups are in case you are playing them. For instance, with Penny out Carson has no competition for touches and Carolina are almost as bad as the Jaguars against the run so I would expect him to put up a lot of points. This needs to be taken into account, you might want to gamble on someone with higher upside to adjust for this if you play him.
Slayton and Pascal are still not 100% owned out there and they have massive upside in Week 15. You saw Eli tossing in to Slayton on several occasions and Pascal had 9 targets after having 10 the week before. Both New Orleans and Miami give up over 30 points on average to Wide Receivers so these guys are in primed to be playoff heroes.
I am placing a Waiver claim for both Slayton and Pascal in two leagues as I need to replace Jeffery and potentially Mike Evans. I am confident that these claims will pan out and carry me into the next round of playoffs.
I made 379 Projections with Probabilities for Week 14.
I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 379 Projections and Probabilities I had 276 Correct and 103 Incorrect. That means that 73% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 14.
We are still 2% below the average from last year with a 2019 average of 73%. I am working hard to bump this up as I refuse to go backwards!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD