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Playoff Preparation & Week 13 Statistics Analysis

Updated: Dec 5, 2019

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today we are prepping for the fantasy playoffs! I hope you have locked up your playoff birth already but if you haven't this article will help you get the in Week 14 as well.


I have divided up the article in 4 areas, starting with playoff Quarterbacks, then Running Backs, Wide Receivers and lastly the Statistics Analysis of Week 13. I will look at players that have the best matchups for Weeks 14-16 while focusing on players that can still be available in your leagues. With that said, to not cause confusion, if you have Lamar Jackson don't bench him.

Don't miss our new Podcast/LiveShow on YouTube tomorrow at 9pm ET! As always check out the Score Projection and Risk Analysis article on Thursday right here on csdfantasy.com. Let's dig in!

For Week 14 Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill have the easiest matchups. Wentz has looked awful while Tannehill actually looks good. They also have the best schedules for the entire playoffs and might be available our there in some leagues. So these are guys that I am considering playing to give me an edge in leagues where I have been streaming Quarterbacks like Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins and Jacoby Brissett.


Daniel Jones on the other had had some easy matchups in Weeks 15 and 16 while not the best in 14. The Dolphins in Week 15 and Redskins in Week 16 are juicy matchups for any Quarterback but, I don't think he's got the weapons to take advantage of this which makes him my 4th option.


Jameis should be owned in most leagues but he's someone that you might want to look at as well for Weeks 15 and 16 with the Lions and Texans. These two teams have been giving away points 23% and 32% above the league average over the season and adjusting for the last three weeks and has the 2nd and 4th least amount of interceptions in the league, something that heavily benefits Winston!

I have been talking about Phillip Lindsay's playoff schedule for Weeks now and it has stayed the best in the league. He has the best matchup of any Running Back in Week 14 and then he plays the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, dream matchups for any Running Back. The problem here is that he's most likely owned everywhere but I want you to be aware of him for DFS.


Austin Ekeler, Melvin Gordon and Chris Carson are again just as Lindsay also probably owned. There isn't really any Running Back that isn't heavily owned with a great schedule out there. I was debating putting Rashaad Penny on the list as well as he obviously has the same schedule as Carson. His ownership is around 50% so he's someone to go for but mainly for Weeks 15 and 16 against the Panthers and Cardinals.


Myself, I will lean heavily on Ekeler and Lindsay in one league, Lindasy by himself in another and if I had made 4/4 playoffs I would have started Gordon and Ekeler in Week 14 but as the second highest scoring team I still missed the playoffs, I'm not salty at all as you can tell...

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As I struggled to find value at the Running Back position I went a deeper for Wide Receivers and with that comes lower Projections even with good matchups. Sterling Shepard just like Daniel Jones has a fantastic schedule to finish out the season, I mean Dolphins and Redskins are any Wide Receivers dream right now and Sterling Shepard is still only owned in about 60% of leagues.


Zach Pascal hasn't really impressed that much but have the second best schedule for Wide Receivers in Weeks 14-16 against the Buccaneers, Saints and Panthers (NFC South). These teams all give up 23% more points on average to Wide Receiver than the league average, that is a lot of points for the taking for a guy that saw 10 targets against the Titans, a team that gives up 9% below the league average to Wide Receivers.


Terry McLaurin is a Weeks 15 and 16 guy. I don't want to start him in Week 14 as Green Bay are very strong against Wide Receivers at the moment and I don't trust Dwayne Haskins at Lambeau but against the Eagles and Giants at home, Yes!


Alshon Jeffery has missed a lot of games but is back in the lineup and has no competition for targets right now. 16 targets against the Dolphins and it is not like he will face tougher opponents, no it stays just as easy moving forward. Giants at home is a dream come through and you really want to take advantage of this matchup to get you one step further in the fantasy playoffs.


Statistical Summary

I made 365 Projections with Probabilities for Week 13.

I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.

Out of the 365 Projections and Probabilities I had 101 Correct and 112 Incorrect. That means that 72% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 13.

We are now 2% below the average from last year with a 2019 average of 73%. I am working hard to bump this up as I refuse to go backwards!

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD