Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am looking at Kicker Floors. These are the most reliable Kickers on a week to week basis and if you don’t care much about the Kicker position this is the perfect article for you. Continue reading and that is all the Kicker info you will need to draft one, set him as your starter for the rest of the year and watch him produce steadily.
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One Game Floor: I take the performances of all the Kickers from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game floor" or just "Floor". Example: Jason Myers has a 3.3 one game floor, that means that there is only a 16% risk that he will score less than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Top 15 feels almost wrong in this article, I guess you would be looking at one of these guys in a 14 team league but I usually write for 12 team leagues or 10 and these guys shouldn’t be drafted in those. There is just no way that you would draft Myers, Hopkins or Carlson in a 10 team league set him as your Kicker and leave him there. Jason Myers is the only one you should consider, not because of his floor but his ceiling in last week’s article, and only for streaming.
Chris Boswell has Ben Roethlisberger coming back and a Pittsburgh Steelers team I have high hopes for offensively in 2020 making him the most interesting Kicker of this group. He’s still just on the edge of being draft able in 12 team leagues but the reason I am looking at him over Josh Lambo and Joey Slye is that Boswell actually made it onto the ceiling rankings as well at the 11th spot. That means that he’s is probably the best of the worst Kickers you should consider drafting for this season.
Younghoe Koo falls down a bit in my book after seeing that he doesn’t reach higher than 7th on the floor rankings. But he’s still such an interesting name for 2020 with what he showed last year, playing for the high powered Atlanta Falcons offense and of course playing indoors in the Mercedes Benz. Furthermore, if we remove the games he played for the Los Angeles Chargers he should have ranked much much higher on this list. With that in mind and that he is cheaper than most guys in front of him he’s still a major player in the kicking game for fantasy.
Matt Gay is super interesting for this year. With Tom Brady coming in, Rob Gronkowski joining the ranks and all eyes on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers I believe that a sneaky good pick from the Buccaneers is Matt Gay. Nobody is talking about the Kicker that is going to be getting extra points and field goals from a team that has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, I mean that team will get in field goal range at least 5 times a game if I am being conservative. Matt Gay is currently undrafted so you can either pick him with your last pick or hold off until a day before Week 1 and grab him.
Neither Justin Tucker or Wil Lutz made the top 3 in the ceiling rankings last week but both make it with room to spare today for the floors. And I think there is a clear trend that these guys are not just great Kickers but they also play for some of the absolute best offenses in the league with some the best Quarterbacks at the moment.
Wil Lutz who leads the way here is of special interest to me. As Kickers on high powered offenses with ageing Quarterback tend to be a great pick for fantasy. The thought is this; the ageing Quarterback, in this case Drew Brees can still move the offense all the way down field but when arm strength starts to dwindle his performance in the red zone starts to go down leading to more and more kicking opportunities, think Peyton Manning and Brandon McManus for the Broncos in the end. Lutz is also cheaper than Tucker and Butker and in a great spot to be the leading Kicker at the end of the year and one of my favorites right after Koo and Gay.
This weekend on the YouTube channel the Head-2-Head series is back and I will be looking at Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers vs. Drew Brees from the New Orleans Saints.
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Till next time! // CSD