Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am looking at Kickers with the highest one game upside in the league. I know some leagues don't even play with Kickers, but for the ones that do this is a really good spot to start from. I love playing with Kickers in my fantasy leagues as I do so much more research on them than most people, even in the fantasy industry. This is a huge competitive advantage and has given me a ton of wins over the last few years.
If you are new to the Ceiling Rankings read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
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One Game Ceiling: I take the performances of all the Tight Ends from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Jake Elliott has a 10.1 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
I have been ever since Jake Elliott entered the league a huge fan of his, even with him playing the the Philadelphia Eagles. He has been an interesting Kicker in the past but over the course of 2019 he took a huge step back and now I am not so sure he's the same guy he was or that the Eagles are the same team they were. Being a top 15 Kicker in Ceiling rankings doesn't really scream league winner, he'll be a nice Kicker to have on a random week here and there but I wouldn't pick him up and roll with him for 16 games.
Matt Prater is an interesting Kicker to roll with in 2020 as we expect Matthew Stafford to come back and be productive for the Detroit Lions, Matt Prater's numbers should continue to be relatively high. Seeing as you can pick him up in the 15th or 16th round with your last pick you can kinda just wait for him to fall to you without worrying too much. There are more talented Kickers out there with even better situations than Prater but most of them will demand a 13th round pick, keep that in mind.
You live and die with Brett Maher. When he was representing the Dallas Cowboys he would make a 60 yard field goal and minutes later miss an extra point. This can be golden in fantasy if you are in leagues that reward long field goals with some extra points but it can be devastating in leagues where you get minus 3 points for a missed field goal. I recommend going with Maher who currently is listed as a New York Jets player in DFS against teams that play bend but don't break football. A good example of this would be the Las Vegas Raiders who just brought in Rod Marinelli as their defensive coordinator. His bend but don't break mentality leads to a ton of kicks for the opposing team.
We are entering the cream of the crop right here. There are in my opinion six Kickers that are worth considering in the 14th round with their ability to decide fantasy games for you. Not necessarily because they are the best Kickers but their situation might just be fantastic in combination with them being decent.
My favorite of the first three is definitely Robbie Gould. Jimmy Garoppolo had an incredibly amount of pass attempts in the red zone last year that did not lead to a score. He had 73 pass attempts and scored 16 touchdowns, for comparison, Gardner Minshew, Deshaun Watson and Kirk Cousins all had below 60 attempts and scored 16 or more touchdowns. The thought process here is that the San Francisco 49ers will get to the red zone on a regular basis but due to the ineptitude of the Quarterback in that area will have to settle for field goals making Robbie Gould a golden boy in fantasy.
Greg the Leg Zuerlein is changing team but going from the Los Angeles Rams to the Dallas Cowboys really doesn't limit his fantasy upside does it. I can easily make the case that the Cowboys are a better offense than the Rams and Zuerlein will have plenty of opportunity to score fantasy points. He is also a little cheaper than Harrison Butker right now which just adds to his value. However, the 13th round is pretty expensive for a Kicker, you have to be willing to give up on some really interesting Wide Receivers to go for Zuerlein. Breshad Perriman, N'Keal Harry and Sammy Watkins are all there so if you are light of Wide Receiver and need a late rounder to hit, I suggest going with one of them. But, if you are stacked at Wide Receiver, I say roll with Zuerlein and watch him win you a few games early on in the season!
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Till next time! // CSD