Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, welcome back to another entry in the Fantasy Breakdown series. If you have not seen this series before it focuses on the new fantasy stars of the league and how they scored their points. I take a deep dive into the numbers that impact my projection algorithm to learn who might have been a one season wonder and who will continue to dominate.
Today I am looking at Kenny Golladay even though I actually featured him in this series last year. I thought it would be interesting to see his personal development as Stafford was hurt for a big chunk of the year. This gives us a unique opportunity to see how he would perform with another Quarterback even if he was still in the same Detroit Lions offense. Let's dig in!
Golladay got targeted perfectly for fantasy scoring in 2019! He has more targets to the short left than right and more deep right than left. This is actually a total 180 from last year when he had more short right and deep left. So they are using him better if we are only looking at it from a fantasy viewpoint.
Without Stafford though he took a step back in almost all Completion percentages. This is quite a big thing that shows just how important an accurate Quarterback is. It should be said though, Completion % is not the end all be all for fantasy, but if you are under 60% in the short zones that is a pretty big deal. The biggest improvement is actually on the deep right targets where he went from 42% to 69% which is huge for fantasy!
Especially since his yards per reception is 31 in that zone. This is a major asset for Golladay and something I can see him building on in 2020. He has higher yards per reception in all deep zones so his big play ability has gone up significantly from 19 to 20. Add a healthy Stafford for 16 games and his short zones numbers should go back to 19 numbers and we have a top 5 fantasy Receiver on our hands!
You actually can't see when Stafford got hurt on Golladay's usability chart. He shows just how good of a Receiver he is with this. Stafford did not play after Week 9 but Golladay just kept producing and had his best game of the year without him.
What we can say is that he became way more volatile in his scoring this year. That is not only without Stafford but even in Week 2-4 ad 7-8 we see big ups and downs. This was not something he was doing last year. He was more stable but also did not reach the highs he did in 2019
Looking deeper into his production and how he handles different game situations we see that he has the same trends as the league average just stronger numbers. It kinda looks like he was outproducing Michael Thomas from the New Orleans Saints on these charts but it is mainly to show Yards Per Catch. Golladay is very strong on the early downs and in the first Quarter but falls of as the game goes on and as the team "dig" itself into trouble.
This is a bit strange seeing as teams usually throw more as the fall behind. But, I like that he's not reliant on garbage time yards to rack up points. He is very much involved in all game scripts, well maybe not if the Lions have 4th down conversions but still.
Last thing I wanted to look at was his situation splits. This showcases where he scores more fantasy points, where 50% is his average. He scores a ton more points at home than he does on the road. This is a way bigger split than last year and good for predicting when he's going to be good but not too good for stable scoring throughout a full season. He scored more against teams that usually don't give up a lot of points to Wide Receivers which is very interesting stat. That means that Golladay is pretty much match-up safe. It doesn't matter if he plays the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the New England Patriots, if we only talk about marking Receivers that is.
That is because it does make a difference if he plays the Patriots or Buccaneers and that is because the Patriots had a winning record and the Buccaneers had a losing record. The ideal opponent for Golladay would have been the New York Giants at home. He did play the Giants but it was an away game, still produced 30.3 points in PPR.
Next Monday I will be looking into Courtland Sutton from the Denver Broncos and this Saturday I will explain why D.K. Metcalf from the Seattle Seahawks is Making the Leap on the YouTube channel
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Til next time! // CSD