Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, welcome back to another entry in the Fantasy Breakdown series, I know Free Agency has been crazy today and I will get to that as well, no worries. On Saturday I will start the Scheme Fit series once again and tackle each of the big name signings. It wasn't a free agency move but I will start Saturday with analyzing how DeAndre Hopkins fits with the Arizona Cardinals. Still can't believe the Texans made that trade, I like David Johson but for Hopkins, come on!?
Anyway, today I am looking at D.J. Chark from the Jacksonville Jaguars. They seem to be in full rebuild mode with players leaving left and right. Chark is still there with a somewhat excited young Quarterback in Garder Minshew. Let's dig in!
Chark has not the receiving patterns we are looking for. Sure he has more targets deep right than left which is nice but that 36% to the short right is not that interesting, especillay as we look deeper into his trends we will see that this might not be the best place to throw him the football.
Furthermore the catch rates are a bit all over the place. 70% short left is nice, 68% short right isn't bad and that 77% deep right is flat out amazing. But, then we look at the other zones, 22% deep left is not acceptable and 58% short over the middle is not what you want when that is his most productive short zone yardage wise. I know this is not the most important stat for fantasy but you gotta catch the ball to score points.
Lastly, his yards per reception are underwhelming in the short zones, 9.3 is alright short right so that's something but his most productive zone has barely any targets and a below 60% catch rate, not trends showing a potential superstar for next year. The deep zones are fantastic but my conclusion here is that we will be dealing with a boom/bust type player for 2021, hard to predict with big games and games you wished you sat him for.
What I was talking about above is again showcased in his Usability chart. He had some fantastic big games where he was above the average of a WR1 for that week and a lot games where he was below the average of a WR3.
I think we will continue to see this in 2021 as well, his receiving trends are screaming boom/bust in the future as well and with the team being what it is I am concerned.
Looking deeper into his production we see that he is somewhat league average on Downs. He starts off strong to fall of on later downs. This is very common as we can see, even Michael Thomas falls of as we get further behind the chains. He wasn't really targeted on 4th down so don't focus on that part/
I am a bit surprised that he was way more productive in the first quarter of games to fall of as the game goes on. I don't necessarily believe this will be the case next year. With the team in rebuild this might switch as he'll have to rely on more garbage yards and touchdowns, less reliable but again can lead to big games.
Last thing I wanted to look at was his situation splits. This showcases where he scores more fantasy points, where 50% is his average. This is actually my favorite part of D.J. Chark, he doesn't really change to much depending on the situation. This is his only reliable area of his game. Sure there is a small difference between playing against good or bad defenses but that is very common among Wide Receivers so I am not too concerned.
The only thing is that this will make it more difficult for us to predict when his big games will come but I can live with that as long as he builds on this develops more into a stable scorer, but for now I will not draft Chark as a weekly contributor on my fantasy teams. I will draft him for high weekly upside to throw in at time with favorable matchups, other than that I am not as high on him as the previous guys I have broken down.
We'll have to wait and see a bit more with Free Agency before I plan out next Monday. Depending on the signings that are going to be made I might have a written Scheme Fit episode here on the website as well as Video content on the YouTube channel.
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Til next time! // CSD