Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, welcome back to another entry in the Fantasy Breakdown series. I love the response the first two entries in this series has gotten and super excited to continue this one. If you have any particular player you would like to see in the future, hit me up on twitter @csdfantasy, IG @csdfantasy or on the YouTube channel. I love getting feedback and I always appreciate when y'all have input on the content.
Today I am looking at Courtland Sutton, my favorite 2nd year receiving going into 2019 and now I am ready for him to get even better in 2020! The main concern I had with him is the Quarterback situation for the Denver Broncos but I am liking some trends Drew Lock has shown so far. But more on that later on in the off-season. Let's dig in!
Flacco has had both a positive and negative impact on Sutton. Let us first look at the Receiving Patterns and the negative. In 2018 Sutton has some of the best Receiving Patterns out there, that is what actually made me pay attention to him. Massive amounts of targets went to the short left while the short right was kinda neglected, something I like for fantasy. Since Flacco arrive this has been reversed, not completely, but still this is frustrating.
However, what Flacco has helped with has been Sutton's catch rate. He raised his catch from 34% to 69% in the short left. That is massive and is one of the main reasons Sutton took a huge step forward in 2019. With Drew Lock looking to be the starting Quarterback in Denver next year we should be very excited as he was even more accurate short left than Joe Flacco.
Lastly, Sutton changed almost nothing in the short zones in his yards per reception. No, instead he just added about 10 yards per zone deep. That is incredible, to stay the same in three zones while improving that massively in three others shows just how talented he is. With an improved offense there is no reason Sutton can't take another step in 2020.
What's been missing is those really big games. He is somewhat stable scorer in standard scoring even if he did fall of a bit at the end of the year. And, no I don't believe this was due to Lock they just lacked other weapons so Sutton was heavily guarded. Furthermore, he still saw plenty of targets in those games.
I would like to see a more clear role for him in 2020 in terms of stability or big games. He's kinda lurking around both those areas but isn't really sure where he's going. Is he going to be a guy that is WR2 all the time or win you entire weeks by himself?
Looking deeper into his production we see that he is somewhat league average on Downs. He starts off strong to fall of on later downs. This is very common as we can see, even Michael Thomas falls of as we get further behind the chains.
What is really interesting though is that Sutton take a break in the second and third Quarter. He is shot out of a cannon in the first Quarter and falls off in the second and hits rock bottom in the third. But then, from nowhere he's back at being at the same level as Michael Thomas. This ties back to what I was talking about in the previous section. He has not yet decided what he is, and I am not sure this is on him or the Denver Broncos coaching staff?
Last thing I wanted to look at was his situation splits. This showcases where he scores more fantasy points, where 50% is his average. He scores a ton more points at home than he does on the road. This helps us to predict his good games as they most likely will occur at home. But it gives him a bit lower value over the course of an entire season. He scored more against teams that usually don't give up a lot of points to Wide Receivers which is very interesting stat. That means that Sutton is pretty much match-up safe. It doesn't matter if he plays the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the New England Patriots, if we only talk about marking Receivers that is.
That is because it does make a difference if he plays the Patriots or Buccaneers and that is because the Patriots had a winning record and the Buccaneers had a losing record. The ideal opponent for Sutton would have been the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. They had a good Defense against Wide Receivers but a losing record. It was also the best game he had in 2019, that particular match-up.
Next Monday I will be looking into A.J. Brown from the Tennessee Titans and this Saturday I will explain why Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers is Making the Leap on the YouTube channel
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Til next time! // CSD