Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, welcome back to another entry in the Fantasy Breakdown series. I am so happy with the engagement this series has received on twitter this year. It has been fantastic to interact with y'all regarding these articles and I am so happy to do so! One of these interactions lead to A.J. Brown being requested so today I am looking deeper into his fantasy production.
2nd year Receivers are usually the most interesting for fantasy but Brown showed already as a rookie that he can be a factor. The biggest concern I had with him coming into the league was the Quarterback situation for the Tennessee Titans. Marcus Mariota has never been a favorite of mine and I think he should aim to be a backup for the Seattle Seahawks. With him gone we can get a bit excited about Brown, or can we? Let's dig in!
Almost perfect receiving patterns for A.J. Brown. That is not a sentence I thought I would be saying after he was drafted by the Titans. I have been very outspoken of how I feel about Marcus Mariota as Quarterback. He doesn't not help his Wide Receivers score fantasy points. But, with him gone we see fantastic trends for Brown, tons of passes short left and almost just as many deep right as deep left.
What makes this even better is that incredible catch rates of 83 and 81% to the short left and short middle. There are a lot of you guys with good receiving patterns but questionable catch rates, Brown is not one of them. He car turn this rookie year into a fantastic career if he can keep up this trend. I would like to see a higher number to the right and outside the numbers, but that is something he can work on.
Lastly, he has great yards per receptions, like really freaking amazing. I kinda wish I wasn't writing this article because now more people will know just how great he is. Sure, people saw what he did at the end of the season, but this is proof that we should expect more of him for 2020! Weird part is, I am mostly excited about that 10.5 in the short left zone, big plays are nice but that consistency in the short left is what will make him great.
Sticking to the topic of consistency, that is what he was lacking in 2019. He had some really big games but mostly struggled to stay relevant week to week. This is something that I hope he can change if Tannehill is signed for the future. Well, actually, as long as it is not Mariota I am fine with Brown. He has the yards per reception in the deep zones to facilitate the big games, but a full season of a competent Quarterback should increase the value of his bad games as well. 10 games below the average scoring of a WR3 is not high level production and will kill you in a seasonal redraft league.
Looking deeper into his production we see the most extreme numbers I have ever seen in the Down and Quarter breakdown. I mean he is almost a straight line from the top to the bottom in the Down chart. This is incredible, as he is crazy good on first down to be irrelevant on fourth down and well below the league average on third down.
What is even more extreme is the up and down he has per Quarter. The first and third Quarter are just bonkers, he gains almost 6 yards per catch more in those two Quarters compared to second and fourth. There is no rhyme or reason to this, but I will look into Vrabel's play calling later in the off-season to see if I can find something to explain this.
Last thing I wanted to look at was his situation splits. This showcases where he scores more fantasy points, where 50% is his average. Here we go from his extremes to pretty stable. He doesn't have a huge Home/Away split which is nice to see. Wide Receivers are in general the position most impacted by this stat, so very impressive. However, he does score a lot more points against teams that give up a ton of points to Wide Receivers. He's in the perfect division for so that is super encouraging. And, he doesn't make a big difference between winning or losing teams, that's huge to end with that. He has trends that indicates a much more stable scorer than he was in 2019, and with that I think he can be a great option in seasonal leagues next year.
Next Monday I will be looking into D.J. Chark from the Jacksonville Jaguars and this Saturday I am starting season 3 of the Scheme Fit series where I most likely will cover Philip Rivers with the Indianapolis Colts or Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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Til next time! // CSD